Jessica Chastain
Age: 44 (but 45 by March 27th)
Film: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Role: Tammy Faye Bakker (later Messner), the charismatic wife and partner in puppetry (but apparently not in crime) of rising star televangelist Jim Bakker. Trying to overcome a confusing early childhood that made her feel like an outcast, Tammy Faye longs to feel the love of God and share that love with others. She’s always happy to do a puppet show or broach an unexpected topic to edify her audience, but what she likes best is to sing. (Would you like to hear her sing? She’d be happy to sing.)
Nomination History:
Previously Nominated for Best Actress in 2013 for Zero Dark Thirty (2012).
Previously Nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 2012 for The Help (2011).
Why She Should Win
Chastain’s turn as Tammy Faye might be my favorite performance of 2021. I’m probably only still alive because they announced the names of the nominees in alphabetical order. I don’t think I could have endured the suspense if I’d had to wait through four other names (and Leslie Jordan slowly trying out more eye-catching fashion accessories) to see if Chastain had indeed made the cut in an overstuffed category that was much harder to predict than usual.
I was shocked that Lady Gaga was left out (even though right after seeing House of Gucci, I was shocked that people thought she would get in). It was 7:30 am(ish) though, and I was getting pretty sleepy. I kept asking myself, “Are they alphabetizing based on Lady or Gaga because K would come before L, right?” (Also I’ve watched nomination announcements before that seem to proceed in alphabetical order until the final name comes out of far left field.)
Why I’m so invested in this particular performance remains a mystery to me. The film was the first one I saw in theaters since March of 2020, so there’s that. And it surprised me so much because I knew nothing (really) about Tammy Faye and had a very negative impression of her based on the pop culture of my childhood. This film also surprised me by unfolding like the biopic of a beloved singer, musician, actress. (It’s very similar in set-up to 2019’s Judy.) Tammy just wants to sing! She finds God through the love she feels from the audience every time they listen to her sing! (It’s very hard to root against someone like that. I came in with all sorts of preconceived (and incorrect) prejudices against Tammy Faye, and I was won over almost immediately.)
Usually the Academy loves physical transformations (although they don’t seem to mind that Nicole Kidman looks nothing like Lucille Ball), and Jessica Chastain has never looked less like herself. I stopped noticing the actress and focused on the character almost immediately. And it’s not just the make-up (though, of course, there’s plenty of it, and the film is deservedly nominated for make-up and hair styling, too). The thing is, I stopped noticing the make-up very early on, too, and that’s a testament to the strength of Chastain’s performance because she is playing Tammy Faye Bakker! It’s not like the make-up isn’t there!
Singling out just one great moment is hard because Chastain carries the entire movie. She’s in almost every scene and is the clear stand-out (though Andrew Garfield and Cherry Jones are very good, too, as Jim Bakker and Tammy’s mother respectively). My favorite scene (which was also my husband’s favorite) comes after the birth of the Bakkers’ second child (and the marital disaster that follows). On a lot of pain medication and feeling resentful of her husband’s treatment of her, Tammy is stalking around sulkily in the background as Jim tries to convince Roe Messner to help finance his doomed Christian theme park/Ponzi scheme. Tammy’s hostility is intentionally comical (in the sense that you think, “Watch your step, Jim! You’ve got Lady Macbeth back there”), and her ability to charm Roe (when she decides to help) is such a conspicuous display of her skillset. This scene works only because Chastain pulls it off. The wrong actress could easily ruin such a moment.
Tammy Faye’s performance of “The Battle Hymn of the Republic” near the end of the film is also genuinely stirring (and like many other numbers in the movie, highlights the fact that Chastain can sing. Surely that counts for something!)
Why She Might Not Win
Jessica Chastain’s pretty good in all her roles, and she’s never won an Oscar yet. In fact, usually, she doesn’t even get nominated. (I know she’s been previously nominated twice, but she’s circled nominations what feels like seventy thousand times.)
I wouldn’t call myself a Jessica Chastain fan (though I do usually like her work), but based on the strength of this particular performance, I think she deserves to win the Oscar.
I doubt that she will. Even without the threat of Lady Gaga (whose best Oscar performances are sometimes given during the ceremony), this category features captivating turns by extremely well known, popular actresses.
The big winner here as far as I’m concerned is Tammy Faye. Chastain brought her back to life and showed her to me in a different light. (I had no idea, for instance, about her interview with Steve Pieters. I was a child then, and my parents probably wouldn’t have let me watch that—or anything else associated with the Bakkers. To bring a gay man who had contracted AIDS on the show in 1985 and to talk to him about that topic in a positive, accepting way in defiance of the evangelical establishment at the time—that was an unbelievably courageous act, one that too easily got lost in all the mascara.
As far as I’m concerned, Best Actress is the most exciting and unpredictable category at the Oscars this year. Right now, the ceremony is so far away. If I had to guess, I’d say that Nicole Kidman will win. I think this for two reasons. 1) She got nominated despite the fact that she looks nothing like Lucille Ball 2) If resemblance to the character is not a factor, Kidman’s performance is actually excellent. 3) She hasn’t won Best Actress since 2003. 4) She should have been nominated for Destroyer. 5) Javier Bardem and J.K. Simmons got nominated, too. 6) She’s Nicole Kidman, and she only has one Oscar! 7) Who doesn’t love Lucy?
I guess that’s seven reasons. I could make a strong case for a victory by any nominee in this category, but for now (when the Oscars are still more than a month away), my initial wild guess is that Kidman will win Best Actress.
Olivia Colman
Age: 48
Film: The Lost Daughter
Role: Leda, the unnatural mother who has a strange idea of how to play and, as a result, unnecessarily complicates Dakota Johnson’s already stressful week at the beach. Alone and unsure of how exactly to fill her time, Leda attempts to take a working vacation, but as she watches a little girl with a doll, she can’t help but remember her strained attempts to care for her own daughters when she was a young professor. As the week progresses, Leda’s past intrudes on her present more and more, and if there’s one thing she can’t handle, it’s being interrupted when she’s trying to focus.
Nomination History:
Won the Best Actress Oscar in 2019 for The Favourite (2018).
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 2021 for The Father (2020).
Why She Should Win
Leda is a fascinating woman. She hates being interrupted. (At several points, I asked my husband rhetorically, “Were her children really that disruptive, or does she just have a focus problem?”) In the present-day portion of the story, Leda’s children are not around, and yet she struggles to stay focused, anyway. And here’s the most tantalizing part. Even though interruptions distress her, and she appears to hate them, she seeks them out almost relentlessly. She also sabotages all her relationships (practically before they properly begin), and then she continues them and continues them (behind the scenes sabotaging them more and more the entire time). For Leda, all human bonds must be thoroughly untenable, or else she has no interest in them.
As I watched director Maggie Gyllenhaal’s debut film, I kept wondering to myself how the young Leda (Jessie Buckley) became the present-day Leda (Olivia Colman).
The other question I kept asking myself was, “Why does she keep staying at this resort?” At times, the vibe of this movie reminds me a bit of Spencer. During idle moments, this resort appears to exist in a horror movie. The difference is in Spencer (which I’ll discuss in a moment), Princess Diana is trapped at Sandringham. Leda is staying at this place voluntarily! Why? Honestly, any ordinary person would leave! (In fact, were this character not played by Olivia Colman, I think the audience might leave.)
Why Colman is getting such high praise for this role is clear. Simply put, not just any actress could make such challenging material work. (Funnily enough, one of the few other actresses I can imagine pulling off a role like this is Nicole Kidman.) Leda’s sort of disturbing. You can never tell if she’s about to become a victim or reveal herself as a predator. She’s vulnerable but (maybe) dangerous, too. Even though we like her, she has an unsettling quality.
Colman is so good in her final scene with Dakota Johnson that she coaxes a better performance from Johnson than I’ve ever seen from her (though, in fairness, I may feel this way partially because Johnson’s character reminds me so much of a friend of mine.)
Though I do not think this is the best performance of Olivia Colman’s career, I agree that it’s one of the best female lead performances this year.
Why She Might Not Win
I’m not ruling Colman out as the likely winner. After all, she can win Best Actress whether she’s playing the lead actress or not. I thought Glenn Close was finally going to win Best Actress in 2019. (No doubt I was deceived by the fact that she was playing the lead in the movie.) But no! In swooped Olivia Colman! (To be clear, I wasn’t mad when Colman won. The Favourite was tied with Won’t You Be My Neighbor as my favorite film that year. I just felt bad for Glenn Close—and even worse for Olivia Colman! I don’t recall any other time that I’ve felt such sympathy for the nominee who won the Oscar! That was so awkward—which was kind of cool in a meta way because it was like a callback to Anne giving that horrible speech in front of parliament.)
Before I digress any further, I’ll reiterate that Colman might win. As the ceremony gets closer, I’ll have access to further 104th hand industry gossip. (You’ll be shocked to learn that nobody was really talking about this in the drive-thru line of the Taco Bell in Hutto this evening.)
Here’s why I don’t think she’ll win. I liked Jessie Buckley’s part better, and (this is important) Buckley did, in fact, get nominated for Best Supporting Actress. I’m not saying that Buckley gives a better performance than Colman (that’s pretty subjective, anyway). I’m saying that her character arc is more comprehensible, and that her character is easier to figure out and to relate to. In fact, in many ways, it’s surprising to reflect that the Colman incarnation of the character is even the same woman. It’s so clear what’s going on with young Leda. She’s frustrating, but she’s easy to read. Present day Leda is quite a piece of work! I feel like I need to see the film seven or eight more times before I can parse through just exactly what is motivating her and what we’re supposed to be taking from her performance!
Now, of course, the complexity of the character and the caliber of performance Colman is delivering is exactly why her work might be recognized with a win. (And, similarly, Buckley’s nomination could signal support for the film and an overflowing of good will for Colman. I see that.) And if I do watch the film seven or eight more times (which would be my pleasure, something I can’t say about every performance), I fully expect what Colman is doing in this movie to hold up to repeat viewings and more intense scrutiny and analysis.
But Colman just won an Oscar, and then got nominated again for The Father (another favorite film of mine!). Nicole Kidman is one of the biggest movie stars in the world. She consistently takes on unusual and challenging projects (to say the least). She has only won an Oscar one time, and that was almost twenty years ago. Her work in TV has been lauded much more recently. I really do expect Kidman to win this year. (But I expected Close to win in 2019. Colman has surprised me before.)
Penélope Cruz
Age: 47
Film: Parallel Mothers
Role: Janis, a photographer who embraces her accidental pregnancy and throws herself into motherhood with joyful enthusiasm…until she begins to realize that something is wrong. And then something else goes wrong, and something else. Soon Janis is dragged through just about every nightmare a new mother can experience. Some fresh horror awaits her at every turn. Meanwhile, she’s also seeking closure from a wound inflicted on her family during the Spanish Civil War. She needs to find a way to lay to rest both her nightmares about motherhood and the body of her kidnapped and murdered great-grandfather (currently lost in a communal grave).
Nomination History:
Won Best Supporting Actress Oscar in 2009 for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008).
Previously nominated for Best Actress in 2007 for Volver (2006).
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 2010 for Nine (2009).
Why She Should Win
Seeing Penélope Cruz’s name pop up in Best Actress was like a fun bonus that filled me with leaping delight. (I was already satisfied with the category when I learned immediately that Jessica Chastain hadn’t been the one snubbed—because somebody was going to be! There were too many worthy contenders.) I knew there was a possibility that Cruz might get nominated, but I wasn’t letting myself believe it. I love all her collaborations with Pedro Almodóvar, and Parallel Mothers might be my favorite film of 2021. I didn’t want to set myself up for disappointment, though, so I pushed thoughts of her potential nomination out of my mind.
What a happy morning in her household (I assume) since her husband Javier Bardem is also nominated for Best Actor for Being the Ricardos!
Parallel Mothers reminds me of a Hitchcock film in its mastery of sustained, prolonged psychological terror (which can include a kind of deranged humor). The movie is a drama focusing on a number of parallel dilemmas (all of them serious) that gradually reveal themselves not to be so parallel, after all. Oh they’re analogous, all right, but they’re also alarmingly intertwined. The film’s basic plot could work with any actress playing the lead role, but what Cruz brings to Janis makes possible the more Hickcockian elements at play. Her reactions (many of them non-verbal) help us to feel the emotional heft of what’s happening, to understand (and vicariously experience) the height of Janis’s terror. Without the nuance Cruz brings to her performance, the film would be a little flat.
Janis is a fascinating character. Cruz and Almodóvar are so lucky to have each other to enhance one another’s work. (I was reflecting on what a fabulous part he’s written for her, thinking, “I wish I had someone to write me roles like that.” Then I thought, “What are you thinking? You’re a terrible actress! That would be a disaster!” Then I thought, “That’s right! I’m a writer! I wish I had someone like Penélope Cruz to bring my characters to life!” No doubt she deserves better material, but that arrangement would work better than my first thought.) At any rate, one of the things that makes watching this film is so pleasurable is noticing A) What a fantastically complex character Cruz has been given, and B) How she has improved on it by the tiny choices she makes here and there. It’s always a pleasure to watch the collaboration of gifted people who know how to enhance one another’s work.
There’s one scene I love when Janis tells Ana (Milena Smit) something like, “This wouldn’t be a favor. I’m almost taking advantage of you.” You don’t say! Ana has absolutely no idea how true this is, so the audience can appreciate the dramatic irony. On the other hand, Janis knows exactly what she’s saying. Like the audience, she realizes the unnerving truth that lurks beneath this seemingly casual statement. We can see in her face how disturbed she is (both by the situation and by her own behavior). But Ana cannot see it. Cruz simultaneously ensures that Ana can’t see the truth in Janis’s face and that the audience can see the truth there. As I said in my review of the film, “She’s so deeply crazed but masks it pretty well. Cruz has to show us both that she’s deeply crazed and that she’s masking it.” It’s like playing two separate scenes at the same moment, showing the audience the interiority concealed from the other character.
I also love the way that Janis’s unstated thought processes (which we see on Cruz’s face and in Janis’s behavior) help us to discover the profound link between the plot involving the baby and the plot involving the grave. Almodóvar shows us that link through Janis, and we wouldn’t be able to see it if not for Cruz.
Why She Might Not Win
Cruz could win. (I kind of hope she does! I’m talking myself into it now!) This is her seventh film collaboration with Pedro Almodóvar, and she’s never won an Oscar for any of the others (though she did snag her first ever nomination for Volver).
Also she won the Volpi Cup at the Venice Film Festival last fall (just like eventual Oscar winner Olivia Colman did for The Favourite) (but also just like all kinds of people who didn’t go on to win the Oscar).
I just have a gut feeling that Kidman has the edge. But if Kidman doesn’t win—this I cannot explain rationally or back with evidence—I suspect Colman is a red herring and that Cruz could be the dark horse that steals the Oscar.
Nicole Kidman
Age: 54
Film: Being the Ricardos
Role: Lucille Ball who feels she only has the happy home she longs for when she’s in the studio making her hit television show. Lucy’s having quite a week. Two scandalous stories have leaked simultaneously. One (that she is a member of the Communist party) could destroy her career. The other (that her husband is cheating on her) could destroy her marriage (which could also destroy her career since the job of Mr. and Mrs. Desi Arnaz is being the Ricardos). Also—good news!—she’s pregnant. Lucy tries to make sense of her life as she processes the fact that I Love Lucy has reached unbelievable heights of popularity, and it may be cancelled by the end of the week.
Nomination History:
Won the Best Actress Oscar in 2003 for The Hours (2002).
Previously nominated for Best Actress in 2011 for Rabbit Hole (2010) and in 2002 for Moulin Rouge! (2001).
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 2017 for Lion (2016).
Why She Should Win
Based on anecdotal evidence, I will speculate that Being the Ricardos appeals most strongly to audiences who 1) Work in the entertainment industry (especially in Hollywood) or 2) Are me.
I watched this movie at Christmas with my family—my husband, kids, sister, dad—and while everyone found it pleasant and easy-to-watch, no one else here felt the emotional heft of it like I did. They were all kind of smiling and nodding along, and I’m in distress, beside myself, wailing, “Oh no! Her life is only real when it’s fictional! She’s worked so hard to get control of her career and build a marriage but unless she and Desi can be the Ricardos people want the Ricardos to be, everything will be taken from her! She still has no control over her own life!” As the movie went on, everyone else was kind of getting sleepy, and I was practically falling off the couch in concern during the suspenseful ending when everything is on the line!!!!!!!!!!
“Well, you’ve been on TV,” my daughter said, sweetly trying to explain it. “So it resonates with you.” (That must be it! I was on six episodes of Jeopardy! This movie is clearly about my life. Lucille Ball and I are practically the same person.)
I have always liked movies (and books) about finding truth in fiction and shifting identities and creation as a means of self-expression. (If my daughter ever gets a free moment to continue our Best Picture Project, we’ll get to finish watching The Departed, the movie that once caused me to exclaim in earnest anguish, “It’s true in the lie!”)
Nicole Kidman is really good in this movie. She’s also the most uncomplicatedly sympathetic that she’s been in a movie in a long time. Seriously, who doesn’t love Lucy? Kidman’s movies usually aren’t this feel good (at least not for the duration of the entire story). Ball is a complex character, but not “complicated” in the way people often use that word. She’s a good-hearted, hard-working person that you want to root for throughout the duration of the entire film. Yes, she and Vivian Vance (Nina Arianda) have their moments. (This film kind of softens up some of the rumors you hear about that, too). Yes, she can be demanding and difficult to work with (because she wants the show to be good. How dare she!). We see that it’s important for her to take control of the show (because it’s all she can control) and be a bit of a perfectionist (because that’s the one thing she can make perfect about her life). I Love Lucy is her life.
I have seen Nicole Kidman play some awfully unnerving people on screen, but you watch this and want to love Lucy. Everyone wants to love Lucy.
To be blunt, Nicole Kidman is so sympathetic in this role—which she plays pretty perfectly—that you do not care that she does not look like Lucille Ball.
Why She Might Not Win
In fact, Nicole Kidman looks nothing like Lucille Ball. (My dad insists she doesn’t sound like Lucille Ball either. We disagree on this point. I think the vocal resemblance is pretty decent. He insists Kidman’s voice is too low. I remember Lucille Ball having a deep voice. But then I ask myself, “When did you ever talk to Lucille Ball, Sarah?” And I answer myself, “I am sure when I was a child she came over to my house to play Password. Betty White was there…”
It’s possible that one of us was on TV during those encounters, but still I could hear her voice! And her voice is super low in Mame and in this random interview I heard her give about working with Katharine Hepburn in Stage Door. I think Kidman’s voice is close enough.) Still Nicole Kidman looks nothing like Lucille Ball.
I mentioned this about three-hundred times in my review of Being the Ricardos, so often that perhaps it might seem like I care. I don’t. It doesn’t bother me one bit that Kidman doesn’t look like Lucy, not even one tiny little bit at all. I mention it only because 1) It’s true, and 2) It might bother somebody.
Since Kidman got both a SAG and an Oscar nomination, it must not bother actors that much, but think of all those bizarrely whimsical Oscar ballots people anonymously share every year. There are so many people who would vote to award the Oscar who didn’t vote to nominate her for the Oscar. (What if there’s some publicist who’s like, “My mother was best friends with Lucille Ball for three hundred years…”) (Actually that person might vote for Kidman since Lucy’s daughter is so involved with the project!) (Now I’m thinking, “Who is this publicist? She sounds so interesting! I wish I knew her! Who else was her mother friends with?”)
I have to resort to these theatrics to say why Kidman won’t win because I personally tend to think that Nicole Kidman will win. Maybe it’s wishful thinking (although it seems odd to call it that because there are other performances in this category I like better). (I like that publicist, though. She’s really growing on me, so as long as it makes her happy…)
Especially with Lady Gaga not even competing, I think Nicole Kidman is going to win. (I say that because Lady Gaga and Nicole Kidman are both stars of a certain stature. I feel like Kidman’s superstardom helps her here, but if Gaga were in the category, it would help her less. I can’t explain that, but I’m just pretty sure.) If you can get such widespread acclaim and multiple nominations for playing someone extremely famous without even trying hard to look like that person, then you’re probably going to win—especially if you’re Nicole Kidman and you only have one Oscar, and it’s been a while.
Kristen Stewart
Age: 31
Film: Spencer
Role: Princess Diana, spending a torturous traditional royal Christmas at Sandringham. Stressed, anxious, unwell, trapped, and desperate to escape, Diana begins the weekend by wandering into a field to steal what might be her father’s hat from a scarecrow, one of the more pleasant interactions she has that Christmas.
Nomination History:
This is Stewart’s first nomination.
Why She Should Win
Spencer deserves more Oscar nominations than it got. (Shockingly, it got zero BAFTA nominations.) (That’s sarcasm.) (I don’t understand why there were headlines about that. The shock would be if it did get a bunch of BAFTA nominations, and Prince William made a statement saying, “What a great film that didn’t at all depict my family’s holiday gatherings as a horror movie with the vibe of Rosemary’s Baby!”)
That’s what I love most about Spencer. It is a horror movie. (Literally. At first I worried that we were in the wrong auditorium!) Just because Princess Diana is there, don’t be fooled. It’s atmospheric horror that replicates (for the audience’s benefit) what it feels like to deal with mental illness. We see the royal family’s traditional Christmas gathering from the point of view of a suffering Diana for whom the weekend is torturous.
Watching the movie, I related to it immediately. It’s extremely well done and reminded me of how I felt in the fall of my freshman year at college (when I became increasingly depressed until I lost the ability to function, had a psychotic break, and had to leave school on a medical withdrawal the day before finals started). If you want to know how that feels, watch this movie. (Maybe you already know how that feels and don’t want to watch this movie. I didn’t find it unpleasant or triggering in any way, but individual experiences will vary.)
Kristen Stewart (not who I would ever have cast as Princess Diana) makes a surprisingly convincing Princess Diana. She is extremely good at mimicking her mannerisms (based on the documentaries I’ve seen. Obviously I never had occasion to observe Diana’s behavior in person) and her speech patterns. (Her cadence does sometimes remind me of the movie version of Hermione Granger, but perhaps Diana and Emma Watson just speak similarly.)
Stewart is very good at giving us a Diana who is immediately sympathetic to a surprisingly strong degree (not unlike the real Princess Diana). She’s excellent in the disturbing scenes with her children. (They’re disturbing to me because William clearly feels he has to take care of her, while Harry seems less aware of the degree of danger, and I think of my own children and don’t ever want to similarly unnerve them or make them feel responsible for me) (or leave them in the dark like poor Harry, not realizing they need to brace for the worst). Stewart plays those scenes really well. The nightmarish scene with her necklace at dinner is my favorite in the film (and one of my favorite of the year). (I should write a post about my favorite scenes! Or at least my top ten films of the year! I’ve done that in the past, but this year I feel like I’ve only seen about ten films!)
Why She Might Not Win
Kristen Stewart is the one nominee in this category that I personally would have left out (not because her performance isn’t good, but because in a year with so many performances vying for these five slots, I prefer others).
For me, the problem with Stewart’s performance is that I saw Spencer for her (since she was getting early Oscar buzz), yet as I actually watched, I preferred other aspects of the film and found them stronger than Stewart herself.
Jonny Greenwood wrote so many fantastic scores this year (in my own musically ignorant opinion), and I wish he’d been nominated for this one. Claire Mathon’s cinematography deserves recognition, too. The atmosphere in this movie is superb, and the film wouldn’t work if it weren’t. It would fall apart into a disjointed mess. I would have preferred to see Greenwood, Mathon, Pablo Larraín (the director), or Steven Knight (the writer) recognized over Stewart because I find their contributions more valuable to the overall efficacy of the film.
For the record, I think Kristen Stewart is a good actress. I liked her a lot in Still Alice and Panic Room, and my older son and I used to love watching Zathura together. I do think she’s good in this. It’s just that the movie itself upstages her.
Even though many people passionately love this performance, I don’t feel that strongly about it myself. I would have preferred to see Lady Gaga in the category. (You might ask, “Is that just because you like her more, Sarah?” Yep! That is absolutely why. It isn’t fair at all in any way whatsoever. (But who cares! I don’t get to vote!) There’s a real possibility that Stewart could win. I probably should watch the film again now that I’ve seen everything, but I don’t know when exactly I’ll find the time to do that! (Certainly it won’t be while I’m simultaneously making grilled cheese! Apparently, that requires my full attention. If I keep trying to write and use the griddle at the same time, I’m going to burn the house down!)