Christian Bale
Age: 45
Film: Vice
Role: Dick Cheney, unorthodox Vice President of the United States who does dark and terrible things to keep America safe and lives largely for his wife’s approval (and also because he has a donor heart).
Nomination History:
Won Best Supporting Actor Oscar in 2011 for The Fighter (2010).
Previously nominated for Best Actor for American Hustle (2013).
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actor for The Big Short (2015).
Why He Should Win:
Christian Bale gained forty pounds for this role. And then he sat in a makeup chair for four hours every morning before shooting. And even though Rami Malek’s Freddie Mercury chompers have gotten way more press, Bale also wore fake teeth.
And this intense approach to the role worked. His Dick Cheney feels so real. Not only does Bale look and act like Cheney, but there’s a compelling depth to the character. I’m still not completely sure how I feel about Vice as a film, but Amy Adams is excellent, and Christian Bale is even better.
Despite Bale’s history of well documented, somewhat horrifying physical transformations for roles (i.e. he lost 63 pounds for The Machinist, then turned around and gained 80 for Batman Begins the next year), he has never won an Oscar for Best Actor.
He has won Best Supporting Actor for playing another Dick, Dicky Eklund, the addict brother of Mark Wahlberg’s character in The Fighter. But for a chameleon of Bale’s caliber, an Oscar for lead actor feels inevitable. If it doesn’t happen this year, it will happen at some point in the future.
But why not this year? Bale’s performance as former Vice President Dick Cheney is flawless. He disappears into the role and dominates every scene he’s in. Without a doubt, Bale owns this movie.
And the thing is, when you’re watching him as Cheney, you’re not thinking, “Look at all that weight he gained!” or, “Wow! If they are using prosthetics on his neck, it’s really hard to tell!” No, you’re getting sucked into the story because Bale really does act like Cheney. Like the man himself, the performance is quiet, unobtrusive, powerful.
The only tiny thing that did distract me just a bit is that in life, I’ve never considered Dick Cheney a romantic figure, but in Vice, at times he seems extremely charismatic and attractive. I’m positive that’s because Bale’s own attractiveness and charisma are shining through.
Bale appears to have already taken off the Cheney weight, which I also find remarkable. I wish I had the ability to gain forty pounds so fearlessly and lose it so fast! My body is still recovering from my last pregnancy, and my son is now three and a half years old. Bale must given Batman such a crazy growl to distract us from his own secret identity as a real life super hero. (Forty pounds!)
The bottom line is, I love Christian Bale. I’ve been a huge fan of his since childhood. His performance is Vice is undeniably strong, and his lively acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards were sorely missed at the dour SAGs.
If I were actually able to vote for Best Actor, I would (most likely) cast my ballot for Bale. The mock Shakespearean scene he performs with Amy Adams is electrifying. Dick’s confrontation with his father-in-law is telling. And the nonchalant way he begins to announce his heart attacks is absolutely brilliant.
Why He Might Not Win:
Bale probably should not have thanked Satan in his acceptance speech at the Golden Globes.
In case you haven’t heard by now (which seems unlikely given all the media coverage), mid-speech, Bale quipped, “Thank you to Satan for giving me inspiration on how to play this role.”
Obviously he was joking. This wasn’t even a case of poking fun at winners who begin their speeches by overdramatically thanking God. That kind of snide mockery always seems mean spirited to me. But Bale was just having a little flippant fun. He won an award for playing a historical figure widely considered diabolical. He’s joking that Cheney is the devil, not coming out as a Satan worshiper.
But people are bound to take this the wrong way. Of course, I don’t think too many Academy members will say, “What? Christian Bale worships Satan? Well, he just lost my vote!” It also doesn’t really matter that the remark is irritating die hard political conservatives across America. How many of them would have loved Vice had Bale not mentioned Satan?
But I just think it’s bad luck to give thanks to Satan. To be fair, I am Christian (Catholic not Bale), and so I do believe Satan exists and that not praising him is the way to go. But setting faith aside, I just think it’s not a great idea to invoke known entities you do not worship in a flippant manner. An actor should know this because any time someone makes a mistake like this in a movie, terrible things happen to him. (Come on Christian Bale, did you not see Hereditary? Beware of ritual words and deeds!)
Bale was obviously joking, but if he doesn’t win, I feel like his kooky, ill-advised shout out to Satan is destined to become a piece of Oscar trivia.
A lot of people hate Satan. A lot of people hate Dick Cheney. A lot of people hate the people who hate Dick Cheney.
But hate won’t lose Christian Bale this Oscar. If Bale does not win, it will be because the voters love someone else more (i.e. the late Freddie Mercury, veteran Willem Dafoe, the one person in the room who got snubbed for Best Director, Bradley Cooper).
Bale definitely has a chance to prevail on Oscar night, but I think Rami Malek has the slight edge at the moment.
Age: 44
Film: A Star is Born
Role: Jackson Maine, a rock legend in decline who discovers and falls in love with Ally, a woman who sings like Lady Gaga and loves him unconditionally. Her rise to fame coincides perfectly with his decline, but the pair continue to love one another to the end, even though Jackson faces demons that he cannot overcome.
Nomination History:
Previously nominated for Best Actor for Silver Linings Playbook (2012) and American Sniper (2014).
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actor for American Hustle (2013).
Previously nominated as a producer of American Sniper for Best Picture (2014).
Also nominated this year as a producer and writer of A Star is Born for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Why He Should Win:
The gimmick of this fourth version of Hollywood staple A Star is Born is the marvel of the singer who can act and the actor who can sing.
This was definitely a passion project for first time director Bradley Cooper. (I know because he keeps telling me so.) Even more familiar than the basic plot of the oft remade film A Star is Born is the version of how this particular collaboration came to be as explained in anecdotes repeated endlessly by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper. He saw her singing cabaret. He came over to her house. She made him pasta. They’re both Italian, she’ll fondly gush. Her real name is Stefani, he’ll lovingly disclose.
And another thing he always stresses is that she did not want to lip sync the musical numbers to prerecorded tracks. Lady Gaga (correctly) thinks that looks fake, so she insisted they perform live in front of teeming crowds. A bit overwhelmed, Cooper realized that he would need professional voice lessons. (Meanwhile, he got her an acting coach. There is nothing these two love more than gushing about each other and the labor of love they shared making this magical movie together. Every time you turn on the TV, one or the other of them is sentimentally reliving their collaborative journey of instant trust and mutual admiration. They’re everywhere. I would not be surprised if they’ve done guest spots on Sesame Street. At this point, they’ve implanted a false memory in my head, and I feel like I was at Lady Gaga’s house eating dinner with them. Maybe I brought the garlic bread, and she let me call her Stefani, too.)
Bradley Cooper has already established himself as both a movie star and an Oscar nominated actor, and for this film, he learned to sing and play instruments like a professional musician. He took voice lessons. He took guitar lessons. He took piano lessons. And he learned enough not to make a fool of himself in front of a live audience. (They filmed some scenes at Coachella.)
That actually is pretty impressive, especially when you consider that he was simultaneously directing (for the first time), and that he also wrote the screenplay, and that he also chose to imitate Sam Elliott’s distinctive voice and cadence throughout the film.
Some aspects of A Star is Born failed to impress me, but Cooper’s acting is not one of them. He gives himself some truly phenomenal moments, like the final conversation Jackson shares with his brother, or his touching intrusion into Ally’s final number. And musically, Cooper performs quite well, especially for somebody who just learned how to sing and play guitar.
Yes, A Star is Born has been done before, but so has Hamlet. Besides, Cooper touched up the material to make this version stand apart. Who cares how many times something’s been done before if this time, it’s done well!
Why He Might Not Win:
I like Bradley Cooper. I really do. I loved him in Silver Linings Playbook. I thought he deserved the Oscar more than Jennifer Lawrence (whose performance I also liked), (not that they were competing against each other). But the best part about A Star is Born is Lady Gaga.
He’s right to wax on and on about what a kind soul she has and how he couldn’t have done it without her because he’s right. He couldn’t have done it without her. Gaga’s gifts as a performer and newfound charms as an actress enable the audience to overlook small flaws in Cooper’s film. (To be fair, she could not have done it without him, either. For a first film, this is amazing. Cooper must be quite a director!) Both leads give excellent performances, but hers is the more impressive. (Gaga actually being a good actress is much bigger news than Bradley Cooper’s guitar lessons. Maybe that’s not fair, but that’s just how it is.)
Another thing that hurts Bradley Cooper is the insane overhyping of the movie. Ever since A Star is Born opened in theaters in October (and, actually even before, at least since Venice), it’s been incessantly proclaiming itself the front runner for every Oscar. On every corner of the internet, I keep hearing that Cooper actually wants to win Best Director. That makes me remember when a college counselor advised me to tell my economics professor to give me an A because I wanted to go to grad school. (After teaching some college courses myself, I realize he probably meant that I should ask the professor what I should do to get an A. But that’s not what he said, and I thought it was the most outrageous advice.) You don’t just sign up for the awards you want and wait for them to arrive. I think the overzealous Oscar campaign for this movie may have backfired a bit (which is not the fault of its stars) (probably).
But then again, Cooper did not get his longed for nomination for Best Director, so maybe that snub will increase his chances in the Best Actor category. After all, people don’t have to choose where to vote for him now. And when Ben Affleck was snubbed for Best Director a few years ago, Argo ended up winning Best Picture. (But that was really different, actually. The Affleck snub felt far more shocking.)
I’ve personally been stewing over this all awards season. For A Star is Born, Cooper learned to sing and play guitar. But do I care? Rami Malek’s songs are mostly sung by Freddie Mercury, but that performance moved me in a way that Cooper’s never did. (There’s something cheaply manipulative about the way Jackson Maine’s story got my tears.) The strange thing is, I’m not exactly thrilled by Malek’s performance either, but I felt more genuine emotion for Freddie Mercury. I was extremely thrilled when I finally saw Christian Bale and Willem Dafoe.
I hope Bale is the one who wins. But if Cooper does win Best Actor, I will be happy for him. I’ve always enjoyed his work.
Willem Dafoe
Age: 64
Film: At Eternity’s Gate
Role: Vincent van Gogh. Yes, that one. Hounded by driving piano music, Vincent searches for light, longs for meaningful companionship, and contemplates his own relationship to eternity, as he travels to Arles, cuts off his ear, enters a madhouse, and paints masterpieces in the shadow of looming mental illness, loneliness, and poverty.
Nomination History:
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Platoon (1986), Shadow of the Vampire (2000), and The Florida Project (2017).
Why He Should Win:
Willem Dafoe is riveting as tormented genius Vincent van Gogh. The performance won him the Volpi Cup for Best Actor at the Venice Film Festival, and, personally, I’m pleased (and not surprised) to see him nominated in this category at the Oscars.
Last year Dafoe was the (very) early favorite for Best Supporting Actor for his wonderful work in The Florida Project (an amazing little film that would have made a great addition to the already above average Best Picture line up). Sam Rockwell did end up winning that Oscar (for an stellar performance of his own), but that doesn’t diminish Dafoe’s excellent work. Clearly he has the attention of his peers.
And believe it or not, this is the prolific veteran’s first nomination for Best Actor. That in itself is a career milestone.
One thing I love about Willem Dafoe in general is his versatility and his complete commitment to every role he takes. He can shine in any type of movie. I mean, he gives a good performance in Aquaman, and that’s not easy to do.
He’s so brilliant in At Eternity’s Gate that I bought the movie. That was a decision I agonized over because it’s such an unusual film, more like a work of art than a traditional movie. (Its detractors would call it pretentious, and its admirers might agree.) “How often will we really watch this?” I interrogated myself. But Dafoe is so good! And as soon as we started watching the film for a second time, I immediately felt good about the purchase.
Even my ten-year-old daughter enjoyed At Eternity’s Gate (which surprised me, to be honest, but she likes art. While we were watching, she asked if Van Gogh was using some special kind of pointilism that didn’t use dots. As we discovered, the answer is yes. In paintings like Starry Night, Van Gogh uses divisionism, which is…pointilism without dots, basically.)
She found it interesting to observe Van Gogh’s technique as he painted. And that’s another Oscar worthy aspect of Dafoe’s peformance. He’s actually painting. He learned to paint in the style of Van Gogh for the film. When we see Van Gogh working on a canvas, most of the time, Dafoe is the one doing the actual painting. Granted most paintings are already largely completed, but early in the film, Dafoe himself paints a still life of his shoes on canvas in real time. Frequently (and especially frequently this year) we talk about actors honing skills in singing or dance (or guitar playing) (or acting) for a role. Learning to paint for a role is less often done, but it’s just as impressive.
At Eternity’s Gate also reveals Van Gogh to us through a series of one-on-one dialogues adapted from his own letters. We discover who he was as a brother, a friend, an artist, a mental patient, an erstwhile theologian, a philosopher. Dafoe reveals every aspect of Van Gogh to us with remarkable sensitivity and clarity.
My daughter was most interested in his conversations about painting with Paul Gauguin (Oscar Isaac). I think he’s particularly brilliant during his conversation with a psychiatrist about why he cut off his ear. I absolutely love that scene. (Talk about great acting! Dafoe’s Vincent is so deeply tortured, yet he’s momentarily delighted to be understood even to a limited degree.) But his later (somewhat disturbing) chat with a priest played by Mads Mikkelson is almost just as good. And I was so moved by the sweet vulnerability he shows in tender moments with his brother, Theo, so sympathetically portrayed by Rupert Friend.
Dafoe’s Oscar chances aside, his performance as Van Gogh is incredible, something that will stick with me for a long time.
Why He Might Not Win:
Vincent Van Gogh died when he was just 37, and Willem Dafoe is 64. That’s not actually a point against his performance. If anything, it’s an endorsement of how perfectly Dafoe plays the part. You watch the film and don’t even think about his age. You just think, “Wow! He captures Van Gogh so well!” He could be 164! It wouldn’t matter!
I do think Dafoe could actually win the Oscar this year, though I doubt that he will. He’s the only Best Actor nominee of 2019 whose film is not also nominated for Best Picture.
That’s not surprising because the film is extremely unusual. I actually like it a lot, but why some people don’t is no mystery. To understand why At Eternity’s Gate is not universally beloved, you need only watch it.
You could argue that not starring in a Best Picture nominee hurts Dafoe’s chances, but instead, think what tremendous enthusiasm it shows for the performance. At Eternity’s Gate was never going to win Best Picture. But The Wife has no shot at Best Picture, either, and at this point it seems almost certain that Glenn Close will be walking away that night with a shiny new Oscar for Best Actress.
Dafoe is far from the favorite for this award, but I think it would be extremely foolish to count him out. He’s a beloved veteran. What if Academy members say to themselves, “Was I more impressed with Malek’s enormous teeth or Bale’s enormous Dick? Or am I upset that Bradley Cooper was snubbed for Best Director? And I liked Green Book, but didn’t Viggo Mortensen say the “n” word? Aw heck! I’ll just vote for Willem Dafoe!”
Stranger things have happened.
Age: 37
Film: Bohemian Rhapsody
Role: Freddie Mercury, legendary late lead singer of Queen whose legacy lives on in music.
Nomination History:
This is Malek’s first nomination.
Why He Should Win:
One aspect of Rami Malek’s lauded turn as Freddie Mercury that is constantly stressed is his use of false teeth. And yes, he did wear false teeth for the role, but that’s hardly what makes the performance special.
I did not grow up a huge fan of Queen (though I did discover by watching Bohemian Rhapsody that I somehow managed to absorb all of their music passively. I recognized almost every song played during the film and even knew the words to most of them).
But until I was a teenager, unless the Chipmunks covered it, I didn’t listen to much pop music. So I associated “Bohemian Rhapsody” with Wayne’s World, not Freddie Mercury. I didn’t even learn that Live Aid existed until years after the fact. And as far as Freddie Mercury goes, yes I’d heard of him, of course. Like everyone, I knew he’d died from complications of AIDS and that he was the lead singer of Queen.
But, honestly, until I saw Bohemian Rhapsody, Freddie Mercury was nothing to me but a famous name, a piece of trivia.
Then Rami Malek introduced me to this amazing, vibrant, charismatic genius, a playful poet whose life was equal parts grandeur, pathos, tragedy, and triumph.
Bohemian Rhapsody is a flawed (though entertaining) film, but one thing it does amazingly effectively is showcase Rami Malek’s unforgettable star turn as Freddie Mercury. As I watched this film, I felt the larger-than-life spirit of a great soul leaping out at me. Malek’s performance has convinced me that Freddie was tremendously special. He may have sometimes found it hard to be human, but his incredible gifts made him something more in the end.
The movie’s reenactment of Queen’s Live Aid set was by far and with no competition the most powerful scene I saw in any film of 2018. I never before truly understood the appeal of being a rock star, but what Freddie Mercury achieves when he sings his heart out to that massive crowd approaches apotheosis. (As I watched, the term “rock god” suddenly acquired some real meaning for me.)
I had a visceral reaction to this powerful moment. I shed tears because I was genuinely moved. Normally I’m an extremely verbal person, but in this case I suddenly experienced epiphanic understanding of something almost impossible to express in words, something extremely encouraging to anyone who has ever been gifted and miserable.
Malek is a very rare thing, a selfless actor. He doesn’t do anything to make his terrific acting the focus. Instead, he simply channels Freddie Mercury. Honestly, as I watched, I felt the spirit of Freddie Mercury had returned, as if Freddie were such a presence that death failed to contain him completely.
And creating this illusion took a lot of hard work on Malek’s part. His meticulous reproduction of Mercury’s every movement during Live Aid alone is quite a feat. But he also brings a palpable pathos to Freddie in quiet moments and almost always puts a mischievous twinkle in his eye that beguiles the movie audience along with his bandmates. When Freddie is on screen, we all feel it. When he’s gone, we feel it even more.
Why He Might Not Win:
Malek has already won a Golden Globe and a SAG award for this role. At this point, an Oscar win is not completely guaranteed, but it certainly seems like a decent bet.
Now, there are limitations to Malek’s performance, too, of course. Even though he is actually singing the songs, what we hear is a blend of his own vocals, the work of another (professional) singer, and the voice of Freddie Mercury himself (used whenever possible). So while Malek is technically singing, it isn’t really his voice we hear. (But Jamie Foxx won an Oscar for Ray under similar circumstances.)
Sometimes I’m not completely convinced that this self-effacing, Malek-as-cipher performance entirely works for me. I will admit that I was tremendously moved by Malek’s work in this film, but was it Malek’s work, or was it Freddie’s ghost? Then again, it is Malek’s modesty and dedication that really allows the memory of Freddie Mercury to shine.
Of course, the dark shadow of the film’s all-but-disavowed director Bryan Singer does loom over Bohemian Rhapsody, which could be a problem, too. The movie’s opening credits list Singer as the sole director, even though Dexter Fletcher stepped in to finish the film. But every time Bohemian Rhapsody wins an award, the silence surrounding Singer is deafening, as if the actors and producers hope against hope we’ll believe the movie somehow directed itself.
It is kind of weird that Rami Malek says he didn’t know about the unsavory rumors haunting Singer’s personal life. I mean, I knew. I’m certainly not a Hollywood insider, and I’ve known for years. Accusations like these have come up (very publicly) before. (If you don’t know what accusations I mean, you can read all about them in the recent piece on Singer in The Atlantic.) Perhaps some of the worst allegations are false, but it seems hard not to believe that Singer does indeed have a thing for barely legal (and not quite legal) teenage boys. I’ve heard this about him for over a decade, and I’m no one. I thought it was just one of those things that everybody knew, but maybe it was everybody but Rami Malek. He might be telling the truth about not knowing. Even if he’s not, what is he supposed to say? Should he have waited to accept work until he found someone in Hollywood about whom there were no rumors?
Whether Malek knew or not, Bryan Singer’s bad behavior is not Rami Malek’s fault. To suggest otherwise is absurd. Besides, before Singer was fired for chronic absenteeism, he and Malek frequently got into fights on set. So why in the world should Malek be punished for what Singer has done? He shouldn’t be, and he probably won’t be.
If Malek doesn’t win the Oscar, it will almost certainly be because Oscar voters loved one of the other performances more. And for Rami Malek, the nomination alone is huge and should help his career tremendously.
He has a really good chance of winning, though.
Film: Green Book
Role: Tony Lip, (father of screenwriter Nick Vallelonga), sometime Sopranos actor, erstwhile bouncer, and hot dog eating champ, who becomes a better man through his unlikely friendship with Dr. Don Shirley, a gifted African American pianist whom Tony has agreed to drive and protect on a concert tour across the American South in the early 1960s.
Nomination History:
Previously nominated for Best Actor for Eastern Promises (2007) and Captain Fantastic (2016).
Why He Should Win:
When I saw Green Book back in December, I thought Mahershala Ali would probably win Best Supporting Actor, and I still thought Viggo Mortensen might win Best Actor, too.
For whatever reason, I no longer have the sense that Mortensen could win. (I keep asking myself, “What’s changed?”) Maybe watching the Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and SAGs changed my mind. Lots of love for Green Book, no wins for Mortensen.
But just because Mortensen seems unlikely to win doesn’t mean his performance isn’t worthy.
Tony Lip is an interesting protagonist. He’s rarely virtuous, but he’s always likable. It’s a good thing, too, because Tony is our way into the movie, and he appears in just about every scene. In order to enjoy Green Book, we have to like Tony. Mortensen’s unenviable job is to make the audience fall in love with a character we’ve been trained to feel wary of.
When the story starts, Tony is so poisoned by racism that he throws away two of his wife’s glasses because African American workmen have drunk from them. And he doesn’t do this looking for the approval of his friends or family. He does it in secret. He is disgusted by (or possibly afraid of) the idea of drinking from those glasses again himself. He doesn’t want them washed. He wants them gone.
We also see in early scenes that though Tony is a devoted family man who hopes to avoid working directly for the Mafia, he is willing not only to lie and steal for his own advantage, but also to rationalize away such behavior rather than feeling regret.
And Mortensen has to sell us on this guy. Now, of course, the audience knows that this is going to be one of those movies featuring a perspective changing experience. Through his relationship with Dr. Shirley, Tony is going to learn his lesson and become a better person. We get it. But I mean, the change happens gradually over the course of the entire movie. Watching Green Book would be a prolonged, unpleasant chore if we didn’t embrace Tony before he becomes a better person. We have to enjoy his company, warts and all.
And somehow, Mortensen manages to make this guy extremely charming.
The role definitely lets Mortensen show off his versatility. Watching this extremely (almost stereotypically) Italian bouncer/driver/bodyguard from the 1960s, I never once thought of Isildur’s heir. The amazing naked knife fight from Eastern Promises also never entered my mind. As Tony Lip, Mortensen is charismatic, amusing, and quite different than anyone I’ve seen him play before. And remember how Bale gained 40 pounds to play Cheney? Well, to play Tony Lip, Mortensen packed on 45!
He also does some powerful acting. The scene in which Dr. Shirley attempts to renegotiate Tony’s salary is among my favorite of the year. Both actors do such fantastic, moving work here. Mortensen gives us a character who is almost a caricature and then uses this instrument to show us such delicate, fine-tuned, genuine, moving human interactions. That can’t be easy. That Mortensen can give such beautiful, soulful moments to a character who sometimes seems borderline cartoonish is practically a miracle of dramatic skill.
Why He Might Not Win:
Why did Viggo Mortensen say the n-word? How hard is it not to say the n-word?
I honestly don’t know how seriously that hurts his chances. I think most people know a little bit about the context by now. While doing press for the movie, he said the word in order to say that no one says it anymore. And according to co-star Mahershala Ali, Mortensen’s greater point was that changing speech is not enough. The problem doesn’t even begin to be solved until hearts are changed. I’m sure Mortensen did not intend disrespect (though that may be part of the problem. He did not perceive that his use of the word was disrespectful if his greater point was valid. Also, it is not true that nobody says the n-word anymore.)
It was quite vicious of the press to leap on this blunder and make scandalous headlines out of it so gleefully. I watched Mahershala Ali speak about the situation on The View, and then Whoopi Goldberg said that the explanation made sense to her. (Goldberg doesn’t always get a lot of respect, but I like her because she’s not afraid to say anything, and (as far as I can tell) always offers her genuine opinion even if it is not popular.) (Lots of people mocked her commercials for Poise pads, but I’ll bet she sold Poise pads. What’s funny about a product that might help some people?)
I will say that when I was younger, it was usually considered socially acceptable to speak the full word in a discussion like Mortensen was having. For example, I remember several class discussions of Huckleberry Finn (in completely different classes at different institutions) in which the word was occasionally said when quoting or referring to passages in the book. That type of academic use seems much more frowned upon now. So maybe at 60, Mortensen is a bit behind the times. (Or maybe that was part of his point in saying that no one says that word anymore.)
At any rate, Mortensen has apologized, and does not seem to have been motivated by hate in the first place (quite the opposite, in fact).
But the thing is, he said it, and I feel like his Oscar campaign ground to a halt right then. Once everybody saw those headlines, he quickly became nobody’s pick for this year’s Best Actor winner. Probably most people don’t hold it against him anymore, but it just kind of killed his momentum. He still got the nomination because his performance is good, but nobody’s been thinking of him as the winner for some time. (Now that I’ve said this, watch him win. You’re welcome, Viggo, my brother, my captain, my king!)
The problem is, it’s easy enough to ignore him. Mahershala Ali has the more impressive role in the film. He plays the more virtuous character, too, and in a movie as beset by never ending scandal as Green Book, it’s safest to reward the most virtuous character available. Ali is probably going to win Best Supporting Actor, so there’s no pressing need to honor Mortensen as a way of acknowledging the film. And, as I hope I’ve conveyed, Mortensen has plenty of formidable competition in this category. Though strong and memorable, his performance may legitimately be the weakest among these nominees. (If pressed, I’ll say that I personally like him a little bit more than Bradley Cooper this year, but I must admit that Mortensen did not need guitar lessons to play this role.) (I wonder if he had to take driving lessons?)
Any one of these five nominees could still win on Oscar night, but it will probably be either Christian Bale or Rami Malek. If I had to bet actual money, I would lose a lot of money because I can think up innumerable reasons why Malek will win over Bale and vice versa.