Black Panther
Nominated Producer: Kevin Feige
Director: Ryan Coogler
Writer: Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole
Cast: Chadwick Boseman, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Letitia Wright, Angela Bassett, Andy Serkis, Sterling K. Brown, Winston Duke, Martin Freeman, Daniel Kaluuya, John Kani, Florence Kasumba, Forest Whitaker, Michael B. Jordan, and others
Plot:
Wakanda forever! (That’s so catchy.) Following the death of his wise, virtuous father, young Prince T’Challa emerges victorious from a ceremonial challenge for the throne and becomes the new King of Wakanda, known to the world as a tiny developing nation, but actually a hidden land of staggering wealth and advanced technology. (Thanks, vibranium!) King T’Challa has a secret identity, too. Empowered by a sacred flower, he has become the defender of his people, the Black Panther. But suddenly a new challenger for the throne appears, armed with a few secrets of his own. When T’Challa discovers that his father might not have been so wise and virtuous, after all, he’s thrown into crisis. Then he’s thrown down a waterfall. What will his sister, mother, ex-girlfriend, and loyal captain of the guard do now? Who is worthy to save Wakanda?
Why It Should Win:
Some people remain convinced that Black Panther could never actually win Best Picture. But why not? It did win the SAG for best ensemble cast, an award it thoroughly deserved. What an ensemble!
Roma is probably the front runner for Best Picture at the moment, by my favorite inside joke of this awards season is to sigh fondly, “Ah Roma! The movie that made my mother love Black Panther!”
Right after watching Alfonso Cuarón’s film about a woman repeatedly washing a floor, my mother remarked, “You know,
Black Panther is not a bad m
ovie. I’m going to have to watch Black Panther again. Black Panther is entertaining, and all of the women in Black Panther are so good!”
That they are! Lupita Nyong’o! Danai Gurira! Letitia Wright! (I was so happy to watch her accept the BAFTA Rising Star award!) Angela Bassett! Riveting, every one of them! I would gladly watch an entire movie about Nakia, the Queen Mother, Shuri, and Okoye traveling across a perilous landscape on a long journey (to…where? It doesn’t matter. I don’t even care if they get there!) These fascinating women are definitely the most captivating part of the story. My sister and I would love a spin-off about Nakia forced to take on the powers of the Black Panther herself. She’s (naturally) reluctant, but it’s the only way! I mean, wouldn’t she make an amazing Black Panther?
And Lupita Nyong’o is even better in real life than she is as Nakia. If I ever make a movie, Lupita Nyong’o is the person I want promoting it for sure. Honestly, I like Black Panther, but I don’t devote a great portion of my day to thinking about it. Each time I listen to Lupita Nyong’o enthusiastically extolling the film’s virtues, though, within two seconds, I start to nod along to her every word as if Black Panther is the movie that changed my life forever. She’s almost hypnotically convincing.
The men in the cast are fantastic, too. I’ll confess that I love Winston Duke’s delightful portrayal of M’Baku best, but I also like Chadwick Boseman’s turn as T’Challa. When Black Panther first showed up in Captain America: Civil War, I was delighted to recognize Boseman in the role because I loved him as Jackie Robinson in 42. And Michael B. Jordan plays an almost disturbingly sympathetic villain. (What he does is unappealing, but life certainly has not treated him fairly. Plus Killmonger’s storyline is probably what makes the material Oscar worthy in many eyes.) (Jordan was also great in the film Fruitvale Station, also helmed by Black Panther director Ryan Coogler.) Meanwhile Andy Serkis plays a villain who is a lot more fun. I was absolutely delighted to see Serkis on stage sharing in the film’s SAG award for ensemble cast. (Chadwick Boseman joked that Serkis has “timing,” but I’d say it’s about time that Serkis, a genius at giving moving motion capture performances, finally got some awards love.)
Though not nominated, director Ryan Coogler definitely has talent, and I would guess this film is also a serious threat in the production design and (especially) costume design categories.
Why It Shouldn’t Win:
Some call Black Panther over-hyped, but I mean, it came out in February, made over a billion dollars, and got seven Oscar nominations (including one for Best Picture). Sounds like it was adequately hyped to me.
I get sick of hearing (and reading) the disingenuous complaint, “I don’t see what makes Black Panther different from any other Marvel movie.”
Really? You don’t?
When people say this, they mean that they think Black Panther is only getting all this attention because it has a cast of predominantly black stars (plus Gollum and a Hobbit). The intent behind these fishing types of remarks is pretty obvious.
But what’s equally obvious (yet somehow apparently impossible for detractors to comprehend) is that yes, that’s the point. Almost all the main characters in this movie are played by black actors (of various nationalities).
Why on earth would that be a point against the film? Crazy Rich Asians is noteworthy for a similar reason, and that movie has gotten some awards attention, too, though no Oscar love. (The Oscars prefer epics to romantic comedies.)
To those bothered by the idea of the Academy recognizing a film (in part) for having an all minority cast, I ask, “If a blockbuster from a major studio featuring an entirely (or largely) non-white cast is no big deal, then why aren’t there more blockbusters with entirely non-white casts?” Hollywood has been churning out movies for a lot of years, but we had to wait until 2018 for Black Panther (and Crazy Rich Asians). Throughout its history, the Academy has taken an interest in films for being of the moment. Why would you hold being culturally relevant against any work of art?
Black Panther is special, in part, just because it exists. Sure, there are other movies with large ensemble casts of black actors, but those don’t usually attract a broad, racially diverse, mainstream audience and make over a billion dollars. Yes, there are other black superheroes in Marvel movies. You can run through the movies and count them. Easily. That’s the point. In most blockbusters, the minority characters are countable, and the default setting for heroes is white.
Obviously it’s wonderful for children of all races to see heroes that look like them. And it’s great for minority actors to get work, and it’s awesome that so many sensational black actors get to work together in one movie. If a cast can be mostly white, surely a cast can also be mostly black. Why not? But let’s just set all those positives aside for a minute and consider why having an almost entirely black cast matters artistically.
As someone born in 1979 who has grown up watching movies, I can assure you that most have a black character in the mix. But often instead of just getting to be a character, that person suddenly represents everyone black. (Or if there are two black characters, they become like warring stereotypes, e.g. one streetwise, the other uptight; one good, the other evil; one a sassy young woman, the other an irascible old woman).
In this film, almost everyone is black, so we suddenly get to see a wide range of black characters, each an individual. Not only is that good for the audience, but it also creates a much more interesting story. For one thing, it means that race cannot count as a character trait, forcing the screenwriters to dig deeper to create rich, complex characters.
In the story, T’Challa has just become king. What kind of king will he be? I have heard and read several complaints that Chadwick Boseman’s T’Challa is the least interesting character in Black Panther. Maybe so, but I think that’s because the story focuses on T’Challa’s quest to decide what kind of king he will become. He is surrounded by a multiplicity of strong characters, each with his or her own focus, agenda, strengths, weaknesses. In the end, T’Challa draws on all of them to form his own character as king. Human beings are multifaceted. A man can be more than one thing. (And a woman can do anything!)
Among its many messages, Black Panther
offers the ideas that 1) race is not a character trait and 2) no single trait defines an entire pe
rson. The film’s characters are rich and complex. They challenge us to consider things from a variety of viewpoints, and they also (at the most basic level) entertain us.
It’s pretty obvious why Black Panther is nominated for an Oscar when the other twenty-five zillion Marvel movies are not. If you don’t get it, then your quarrel is not with Black Panther, but with the Academy itself.
Why won’t Black Panther win Best Picture? Honestly, I wouldn’t count it out completely. A lot of people love it, and nobody really hates it. The movie’s entertaining.
Is Black Panther deserving of Best Picture? I wouldn’t call it the best film of 2018. It’s much more exciting in some places than others, and even though I understand the point the film is making, Michael B. Jordan’s character sometimes seems more charismatic and sympathetic than Chadwick Boseman’s, and all the women are more exciting than either of them. But the best film of the year rarely wins Best Picture.
If I’m being honest, the films of 2018 strike me as a pretty weak crop compared to last year. So I don’t think Black Panther will lose because of its weaknesses. I think it’s far more likely to lose because of its strengths. It’s an entertaining Marvel movie that made a billion dollars. The Academy doesn’t like rewarding stuff like that. At least, they haven’t in the past. But they also don’t typically honor foreign films or Netflix movies with the biggest prize of the night, so we’ll see.
BlacKkKlansman
Nominated Producer(s): Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele, and Spike Lee
Director: Spike Lee
Writers: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott, Spike Lee
Cast: John David Washington, Adam Driver, Laura Harrier,
Jasper Pääkkönen
, Ashlie Atkinson, Ryan Eggold, Michael Buscemi, Nicholas Turturro, Paul Walter Hauser, Isiah Whitlock Jr., Robert John Burke, Arthur Nascarella, Ken Garito, Frederick Weller, Corey Hawkins, Topher Grace, Alec Baldwin, Harry Belafonte, and others.
Plot: In the 1970s, Ron Stallworth becomes the first African American officer in the Colorado Springs Police Department but finds his early assignments frustrating and decides to start his own undercover operation infiltrating the local chapter of the KKK. This goes better than you might expect.
Why It Should Win:
A true story about an African American who went undercover and successfully became a member of the KKK? Even Spike Lee was incredulous when Jordan Peele first made him aware of Ron Stallworth’s story.
This heavy-hitting film isn’t exactly subtle, but, in fairness, that’s kind of the point. Perhaps subtlety is overrated if so many people are missing the message. Maybe it takes a black Klansman to get people’s attention.
My favorite aspect of this particular film is the Adam Driver storyline. (What a great performance by Driver!) He starts out thinking that he isn’t really Ron Stallworth (because it’s just a job), but then he slowly begins to realize that, oh yes, he is Ron Stallworth, at least from the Klan’s point of view. Driver’s Flip Zimmerman has never given much thought to the Jewish part of his identity. Now he must. He never realized the importance of being Jewish until forced to deny it at gunpoint. And here’s the thing (a little takeaway for everyone). There really are two Ron Stallworths, the black Ron Stallworth, and the white Ron Stallworth. The Klan would never let black Ron Stallworth join if they knew he was black. But they wouldn’t let white Ron Stallworth join either, if they knew he was Jewish. And if anybody watching doesn’t meet the Klan’s standards, then we’re Ron Stallworth, too. And if we find the Klan despicable and dangerous, then we are also Ron Stallworth.
Driver is a standout, but all the performances are strong. Finnish actor Jasper Pääkkönen gives Klansman Felix eerie intensity, and Ashlie Atkinson is disturbingly believable as his wife. Even if you’re not sure you’ll love the film, I’d recommend watching once just to listen to Corey Hawkins delivering the speeches of Kwame Ture and Harry Belafonte describing a harrowing hate crime. And in the (tricky) role of Ron Stallworth, Denzel Washington’s son John David Washington makes us see immediately the difficult task that faces Ron. He stands out when among the white police officers. He stands out when among the African American activists, as well. How can he reconcile his warring identities?
Spike Lee often makes films that not only hold up to multiple viewings, but practically demand them, and BlacKkKlansman is definitely one I’d recommend re-watching (at least once)! It’s quite well crafted with a structure that contributes to its meaning, and it makes fascinating use of both historical films and present day footage. The score by Terence Blanchard is itself Oscar worthy (and nominated). And plus you get to see Topher Grace play David Duke! (That seems like such wacky casting to me, but he’s surprisingly good in the role.)
BlackKklansman is an excellent film, but nobody is going to mistake it for the feel good movie of 2018. In fact, if we’re paying attention, we should feel quite uncomfortable as we watch. (Those targets at the KKK shooting range are real, not props made for the film!)
As my husband put it, the content of BlackKklansman is jarring, especially its frequent use of the n-word (and not just the n-word! All kinds of racial slurs get tossed around, some words that I’d be willing to bet most kids today have never even heard!) Since the movie is about the KKK, its use of harsh language is not gratuitous, but it is sobering.
For a Spike Lee movie, this film is surprisingly inclusive and hopeful, but some people are not going to see it that way. If Academy members want to vote for a film that deals with racism, they may find the less disturbing Green Book (winner of the Producer’s Guild Award) a more palatable option. Voters who would choose BlackKklansman to make a political statement against present failings of our government may find they can send a similar message of protest by voting for the pro-Mexican (and also less jarring) Roma.
Spike Lee is a great (and often overlooked) American filmmaker. I wouldn’t count out BlackKklansman completely, but I would expect a film that’s slightly less jarring and a little more comfortable to win Best Picture this year.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Nominated Producer: Graham King
Director: ???? The opening credits say Bryan Singer, but Rami Malek has only mentioned Dexter Fletcher
Writers: Anthony McCarten and Peter Morgan (story)
Cast: Rami Malek, Gwilym Lee, Ben Hardy, Joseph Mazzello, Lucy Boynton, Aidan Gillen, Allen Leech, Tom Hollander, Ace Bhatti, Meneka Das, Priya Blackburn, Aaron McCusker, Dickie Beau, Max Bennett, Matt Greenwood, Mike Myers
Plot:
Freddie Mercury doesn’t fit in anywhere but on a stage. He knows he’s destined to be a star and soon joins with other musicians to form Queen, a band whose members see themselves as misfits singing to other misfits. As we watch Freddie rise to stardom, then descend into torment, only to rise even higher, we get to enjoy an endless succession of back-to-back hits and experience the terrifying, exhilarating power of rock-and-roll.
Why It Should Win:
Bohemian Rhapsody‘s reenactment of Queen’s Live Aid set genuinely moved me to tears. For the first time, I understood the term, “rock god,” and what becoming a star meant to Freddie Mercury. On that stage, magic happened. Watching Freddie give himself completely to his music and win the adulation, love, participation, and acceptance of the teeming crowd, I thought, “This is more than performance. This is apotheosis.”
I still can’t put the full power of the epiphany I experienced in that moment into coherent words. A concept I had never understood suddenly made perfect sense to me. Freddie was an outsider with a difficult life, but he had such a spark. His soul was in his music, and by giving of himself, he became something bigger. Freddie Mercury is dead, but he was alive for me in that moment, channeled through the instruments of Rami Malek and my own imagination. His music became a part of everyone listening (including me), and in his music, Freddie Mercury lives on.
For me, this is by far the strongest scene from any film last year. There is no contest. The jumbled mess of emotion, inspiration, and insight I experienced in that moment was something real. To be moved by art is always a wonderful thing. But to be moved like that at the movie theater…it just doesn’t happen very often. Trust me. I go to movies all the time. And sure, I laugh, I cry. But this touched something deep inside me in a profound, inexpressible way.
The rest of the film is…not as powerful. (How could it be?) (The Mike Myers cameo is extremely amusing, but that’s more like a gimmick, a little inside joke for the movie audience.) Still, the entire movie builds to this incredible moment at Live Aid, and divorced from context, the moment wouldn’t work. So…
I don’t know. Honestly, Bohemian Rhapsody is beginning to wear me down. Critics did not love this film, and when I reviewed it, I personally saw a number of flaws. But the remaining members of Queen are extremely convincing (especially because they have that Live Aid scene to use in making their case). As an artist myself (a writer), I’m beginning to think I’m on their side. Yes, that incredible moment at Live Aid is achieved, in part, by manipulation of events and smudging of facts (such as the date of Freddie’s AIDS diagnosis). As a biopic of Freddie Mercury, the film fails on a number of levels. But who says it’s a biopic of Freddie Mercury? The other members of Queen (who had creative control of the project) have said repeatedly that this is actually the story of the band. Detractors have sneered that this is just a tribute movie, that it pleases audiences with catchy Queen hits to make them feel good. But what exactly is so wrong with that? What if this movie isn’t attempting historicity? (The Favourite isn’t, and nobody is condemning it for that!) What if it’s a meditation on the power of music and the relationship between the star and the audience?
So what if Bohemian Rhapsody plays fast-and-loose with the facts? What matters is the music. The dates have all come and gone. The dates are dead. But the music lives on, and Freddie Mercury is still alive in his art.
Why It Shouldn’t Win:
“Perfectly adequate,” that’s a quote from my second favorite scene in the movie, the moment when “Bohemian Rhapsody” plays, and we see blurbs from all the less-than-stellar reviews pop up on the screen. And the movie audience laughs (as intended) because we all know and love “Bohemian Rhapsody.” Brian May has made the point that critics have given Queen’s songs bad reviews before. But how much does that matter in the long run? If the audience embraces the work, then critics be damned. If critics didn’t always recognize the genius of Queen’s music, then why should anyone care if critics undervalue the movie?
Still, the movie, while full of excellent performances, does not really delve into any of the characters. Nobody seems complex except Freddie, and we are left to imagine much of his complexity ourselves. His life as a gay man is marginalized to the point that it almost vanishes. So many fabled parties, but we never see any moment of Freddie enjoying himself after he comes out. He divorces his wife, waits forlornly for her to answer his good night calls, makes sad eyes through a party, leaves the band, gets AIDS, feels hopeless, and returns to his family to die. I’m not saying that these things didn’t happen, just that the movie gives us little insight into Freddie’s character outside of his extraordinary music. We know what the band knows. But when Freddie distances himself, those parts of his life seem almost not to have existed.
But as far as this film’s Oscar chances go, what Freddie did as a gay man matters far less than what director Bryan Singer did. He is absolutely mired in scandal at this point. For more than ten years, he’s been dogged by rumors that he prefers to sleep with teenage boys (some barely legal, others underage). He’s also been accused of violent sexual assault by some alleged victims. Like Kevin Spacey (who attempted to explain away an accusation of sexual assault on a minor by coming out of the closet), Singer has made some tone deaf complaints about homophobia. His conduct motivated the GLAAD awards to remove this film from its list of nominees.
Though Singer is listed in the opening credits as the film’s sole director, he was fired from Bohemian Rhapsody late in filming because of chronic absenteeism (and rumors of unprofessional behavior on the set including violent altercations with Rami Malek). This level of scandal makes it pretty hard for Academy members to feel good about voting for Bohemian Rhapsody for Best Picture. Its win for Best Drama at the Golden Globes was an enormous shock to everybody, but I highly doubt the Academy will make the same choice as the Hollywood Foreign Press.
The Favourite
Nominated Producer(s): Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
Director: Yorgos Lanthimos
Writers: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Cast: Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone, Nicholas Hoult, Joe Alwyn, James Smith, Mark Gattis, Jennifer White, and others.
Plot: Should love have limits? Can honesty be taken too far? Is it okay to claw your way to the top because people keep kicking you to the bottom? At the court of Queen Anne, last of the Stuart dynasty, three women take center stage. Queen Anne wants love and comfort. Lady Marlborough wants power and control. Abigail Hill wants position and safety. Meanwhile everyone else is busy racing ducks, hurling fruit, and playing nasty pranks. Oh, and also there’s a war going on.
Why It Should Win:
The relationships (romantic and otherwise) at this fictive reincarnation of Queen Anne’s court might make the viewer wince; nevertheless, The Favourite gives us a perfect marriage of style and substance. The use of natural light, long tracking shots, authentic locations, fish-eye views–all of this contributes to our sense that we are peeking through a keyhole into a strange, exclusive world, distorted equally by privilege and pain.
Director Yorgos Lanthimos has said in interviews that the film is not overly concerned with historicity, yet (if you ask me) it ironically manages to be far more historically accurate than most period pieces about life at court. I’m an Anglophile who spent years studying English dynastic history (particularly the Elizabethan era). I’m also a lifelong movie buff. Never before have I seen such an apt, insightful cinematic meditation on what it means to be a royal favourite. In fact, most Hollywood movies ignore the concept entirely, as if they have no idea of its importance. To put it plainly, when you’re ruled by a monarch, the surest way to influence policy is to influence the monarch. Physical proximity to the king (especially when combined with emotional closeness) can give a person (and his or her associates) tremendous power. But the favourite is never safe. You become a favourite by whim not due process of law. You always fall from favour eventually, and when you do, what a fall! One minute, your head is on the royal pillow, and the next it’s on a pike!
In this film, Lanthimos conveys the perilous, treacherous nature of the royal court so powerfully. Emma Stone’s character only wants to be safe and comfortable. Well, she’s come to the wrong place! And we get the idea that Anne’s court is particularly twisted and corrupting, perhaps because it mirrors the twisted, corrupted flesh of the perpetually suffering, chronically ill, psychologically destroyed sovereign.
The first time I watched this dark, disturbing story, I was focused entirely on following the plot and managing my surprise.
But when I watched a second time, I paid particular attention to the camera angles and the use of natural lighting. (The film uses naturally lighting almost exclusively, and to great effect, probably one of the reasons it also has a cinematography nomination.)
There’s this one absolutely exquisite moment when Emma Stone’s Abigail watches from the recesses as two other characters enter a room. In horror, she suddenly realizes that she has seen something she should not have. Terrified of being discovered there, she blows out the candle she is holding. And disappears.
It’s almost magical. Historical accounts of court life are always over-brimming with reports of things people overheard or witnessed in secret. How could this type of thing happen so often? Well, there’s no electricity. So if you’re in the recesses of a room at night, and you snuff your natural light source, you vanish into the shadows. It’s the coolest thing.
I love The Favourite. I could write an essay a day about it for the rest of my life. The performances are amazing, too. Even Nicholas Hoult is fantastic, though he never gets any credit since he’s eclipsed by the three female leads. The sheer physicality demanded from these actresses makes my mind explode. I could never play any of these roles. (Of course, I’m not the gold standard for acting. That’s for sure!) Still, they’re really impressive. Emma Stone gives the best performance of her career. Olivia Colman is an absolute revelation, and if this year’s performance is the only factor, Rachel Weisz honestly deserves to win Best Supporting Actress (as she did at the BAFTAs).
I hope Weisz does pull off some kind of upset (if you can even call it that with all the confusion in the category this year). And I really hope Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara win for their screenplay, so incredibly well structured. The story of one favourite’s rise is the also story of another’s fall. It’s brilliant!
Why It Shouldn’t Win:
The Favourite almost seems to celebrate ugliness, and its unpleasant aesthetic makes it hard for some people to embrace the film. (A lot of audiences seem to respond to it the way Father Mads Mikkelson tries to counsel Willem van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate. “God gave you this gift? Ummmm…dude, you know this painting is hideously ugly, right?”) Some people who watch this film genuinely despise it, and this probably has something to do with the lack of a clear, morally defensible, always sympathetic protagonist (plus the abundance of vomit and cruelty).
The first time I watched The Favourite, I gaped in confusion at the screen, uncertain of how I felt about what was happening moment by moment. But at the end, I thought, “Well, I’ve seen something.” And I meant that as a compliment. With some reflection, I realized this aptly titled film was, in fact, my favorite of the year.
My parents did not feel the same way when I showed it to them. The next day, my dad expressed disappointment in Emma Stone’s character arc, and my mom lamented that movies these days always tend to show us the worst in people. Rachel Weisz, though, has repeatedly compared the film to All About Eve, and from her character’s point of view, it is quite like that film, which was made in 1950.
Rachel Weisz has also said of the shocking story, “It’s all true!”
Now some people, I’m sure, are disturbed by the amount of lesbian content in the film (which is above their preferred threshold of none). You don’t have to be homophobic or hostile to get exasperated by the way historians and biographers over-zealously out every dead celebrity. I agree that it seems unlikely that everyone who ever lived was secretly gay. But a pretty convincing case can be made for Queen Anne. Now, yes, she had seventeen pregnancies and a beloved husband, but being pregnant and having a beloved husband wouldn’t necessarily stop someone from having a lesbian affair with Rachel Weisz. (See Rachel McAdams in 2018’s
Disobedience if you’re skeptical.)
That’s kind of a joke, but this is not. The person who outed Queen Anne wasn’t some random historian. It was Sarah Churchill (i.e. Lady Marlborough). She accused her (in print) of turning against her because she was having a lesbian relationship with Abigail Masham (i.e. Emma Stone). If you don’t want people to suspect that you’ve had an affair with your acknowledged bestest friend, then you probably should not accuse said friend of turning on you because she was seduced by another woman. Obviously nobody can prove that Anne and Sarah did have a sexual relationship (and that certainly was not what Sarah intended people to take away from her vicious rumor), but I’d say there’s more than enough smoke to justify such a smoldering portrayal in a movie not even claiming to be factual.
I can definitely see why people might be reluctant to embrace this film in all its dark weirdness, though, especially when there are cheerier options like Roma, Green Book, and literally every other movie nominated. (Even BlacKkKlansman with all its shocking brutality has a warm, properly morally oriented center.) I kind of hope The Favourite wins Best Picture (on the grounds that it actually is the best picture of the year), but I’m almost positive that it won’t.
