Antonio Banderas
Age: 59
Film: Pain and Glory (Dolor y Gloria)
Role: Salvador Mallo, an aging film director in constant physical and psychological pain, initiating and recalling conversations, reflecting on the ruin of his life, and learning to see (and create new) triumphs.
Nomination History:
This is Banderas’s first nomination.
Why He Should Win:
I’m sad (though not surprised) that Adam Sandler, Eddie Murphy, and George MacKay didn’t make the cut here, but I was so relieved to hear “Antonio Banderas” called instead of “Taron Edgeron.” (I have nothing against Edgerton, who is talented and charming, and I love Elton John, but in a year with far more than five mind-blowing performances in this category, I wanted to see names of only the actors who gave some of them.)
Antonio Banderas already deservedly won Best Actor at Cannes, and for audiences who have only seen his American movies, his work is revelatory in Pedro Almodóvar’s beautiful, moving (red!!) film Dolor y Gloria (Pain and Glory).
Almodóvar’s essentially autobiographical masterpiece is not necessarily an easy watch if you’re unaccustomed to foreign films. It’s no fast-paced Parasite (a summer blockbuster in South Korea). No, Pain and Glory unfolds in an unhurried, disjointed, often bewildering fashion, jumping (sometimes through time) between seemingly unconnected conversations Salvador Mallo (the director’s fictional alter-ego) shares with friends and relatives. But then we get this amazing reveal of the heart of film (and of Mallo) and slowly understand that what we’ve viewed as unrelated moments are actually more like petals on a flower all connected to this beating heart of the story. What a meaningful, profound cinematic experience! Honestly I can never decided which I prefer, Parasite or Pain and Glory, such different films and both so powerful!
The movie would not work without the stunning central performance of an understated, quietly passionate Antonio Banderas. He doesn’t do anything showy, and yet he slowly shows us so much. He gives us everything, the whole man, all his secrets, and his fears, and his dreams.
In a late scene, following the riveting performance of “Addiction,” a monologue Mallo has written (spoken on the stage by Asier Etxeandia who is also outstanding), Salvador reconnects with an old lover. In this scene, Banderas performs the way most actors only dream they could. Finally we begin to understand what is really motivating Salvador and why all of these conversations (present and remembered) are linked in his mind. At this point, I became so deeply emotionally invested in Salvador. (I cared so much! I felt like I was watching a film about my own life, though Mallo and I are quite different people in ways that are glaringly obvious.)
Why He Might Not Win:
Age: 45
Film: Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood
Role: Rick Dalton, the one-time star of Bounty Law and current next-door-neighbor of Sharon Tate, who is facing a crisis in his career, reaching “the end of the trail” with his long-term friend and stuntman, and, thanks to professional training, still surprisingly proficient with a flame thrower.
Nomination History:
Won the Best Actor Oscar in 2016 for The Revenant (2015).
Previously nominated for Best Actor for The Aviator (2004), Blood Diamond (2006), and The Wolf of Wall Street (2013).
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actor for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape (1993).
Why He Should Win:
Leonardo DiCaprio is one of my favorite actors. He basically only makes movies that might win Oscars, less a sign of awards grubbing than choosing projects based on quality. I personally want to see him play Adolf Hitler in a serious biopic. There’s no potential project in the works. It’s just that his crazed speeches to his employees in The Wolf of Wall Street convinced me that he’d be so perfect for the part. DiCaprio’s tragically not nominated turn in The Departed (resulting from what can politely be called “category confusion”) remains one of my favorite performances of all time. And he’s doing more fantastic work here. (People keep calling it career best work, and I won’t argue, though if you ask me, his best performance is still in The Departed.)
Because I’m such a DiCaprio fan, I always watch his work exceptionally critically, and on a first viewing, I wasn’t blown away by what he does in Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood. Then I watched again and realized, “No, he actually is as fantastic as everyone says.” (I am usually extra hard on him to counter my natural prejudice in his favor.)
What makes his turn as Rick Dalton so great is its layers. I feel like critics and industry insiders throw out the term “layered” so often when praising a performance that it initially sounds like meaningless industry jargon. But the layers I’m talking about here are quantifiable and easy to describe. In his best sequence of scenes, DiCaprio plays an aging actor struggling to reach deep within himself and give a performance that will convince him (and the others making the project with him, including a little girl) that he really is a good actor, not just some has-been from a cowboy show. The character that DiCaprio’s character Rick Dalton is playing is a villain, but Rick feels he himself will only be a hero (to himself, the others, the child) if he plays the villain well. Unfortunately, Rick flubs his lines (even though he has rehearsed), which shatters his confidence and triggers a self-reproaching, rant-like meltdown in his trailer. (This meltdown was ad-libbed by DiCaprio, as Quentin Tarantino keeps stressing over and over again at public events.) Then Rick comes out and plays the scene again. This time, he is brilliant, chilling, evil. Rick Dalton makes the decision to play the character as an almost Shakespearean villain. He succeeds. The villain is evil. Rick Dalton is a hero. The child is impressed. DiCaprio is incredible.
Why He Might Not Win:
Age: 36
Film: Marriage Story
Role: Charlie, the MacArthur genius/successful New York based playwright and director who seems blindsided by his wife’s decision to divorce him and live with their son in Los Angeles.
Nomination History:
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actor for BlackKklansman (2018).
Why He Should Win:
Part of me wants Adam Driver to win this Oscar. Yes, Phoenix is unique and powerful in Joker, but Driver’s passionate turn in Marriage Story is at some moments sympathetic and relatable, at others breathtakingly terrifying (and sadly also relatable). (Maybe its relatableness is what makes it terrifying.) Playing an unhinged mass murderer, Joaquin Phoenix impressed me tremendously. But playing a loving, newly single dad, Adam Driver genuinely frightened and disturbed me.
In his final big fight scene with his becoming-ex-wife Nicole (Scarlett Johansson), Driver’s Charlie goes too far, taking his passion to a place so dark and disturbing that when he has finished unleashing this raw, out-of-control tirade, she comforts him. The dark emotion Driver unleashes in Marriage Story is far scarier than anything I ever saw from him as Kylo Ren (who, let’s not forget, killed Han Solo!).
This extreme darkness certainly comes from a place of frustration, desperation, anger, and weariness. And it’s a bit shocking because (for me at least) up to this point, Driver’s Charlie has been far more sympathetic (and easy to feel sorry for) than Johansson’s equally well-acted Nicole.
The sheer intensity of powerful (and convincing) emotion Driver displays in that last argument makes it readily apparent why he was cast as a Dark Side Force user in Star Wars.
I can’t remember the last time that I’ve seen emotion that raw and intense on screen. (Maybe Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed. But he’s not terrifying there, just intense.)
To deliver such a startling display of rage after spending most of the movie seeming so sympathetic (even sweet) makes Adam Driver absolutely Oscar worthy here. I can’t argue that Phoenix doesn’t deserve the Oscar. He does. But if this contest were decided by me, Adam Driver might be the one making the acceptance speech on Oscar night.
Why He Might Not Win:
Driver appeared in so many interesting projects this year, some highly acclaimed (The Report), some quirky (The Dead Don’t Die), some popular (The Rise of Skywalker). And let’s not forget about his previous nomination for BlackKklansman, which was just last year. Very rapidly, he is becoming one of the most sought after, critically acclaimed, versatile leading men in Hollywood. He will definitely win an Oscar someday, but this year the prize is almost certainly going to the abundantly deserving Joaquin Phoenix.
Age: 45
Film: Joker
Role: Arthur Fleck, who has the bad luck as a comedian of making people laugh at him for the wrong reasons, and the worse luck as a mental patient of losing access to affordable therapy and medication. Struggling with a Tourette-like tic that forces him into painful fits of laughter at inappropriate times, Arthur hates the nickname his mother has given him, “Happy,” because he’s never felt happy a day in his life. Then he finds a surprising solution to all this problems. He just starts murdering people whenever he feels like it. Hey don’t knock it until you’ve tried it!
Nomination History:
Previously nominated for Best Actor for Walk the Line (2005) and The Master (2012).
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Gladiator (2000).
Why He Should Win:
When I showed the movie Joker to my parents, they were so baffled when Arthur Fleck begins methodically emptying his refrigerator, then without a word climbs inside it.
“Why did he do that?” my mother wondered, bewildered.
In delight, I told her, “Joaquin Phoenix improvised that!”
To me that bit of trivia (gleaned from interviews with cinematographer Lawrence Sher) tells the entire story of why Joaquin Phoenix deserves an Oscar. It certainly shows why he has the respect of his peers right now. It’s not that he climbed inside the refrigerator, but that he did it on instinct.
Even when encouraged to improvise, most people don’t just randomly climb inside refrigerators. Phoenix has a gift for getting his head into some very unusual spaces and constructing fascinating, idiosyncratic characters from the inside out. The characters he creates are often, to put it bluntly, weird. He usually plays highly unusual people. But his method of revealing them to us rarely seems showy. He gives us instead an inconspicuous glimpse into their lives.
Joaquin Phoenix probably should have won an Oscar a long time ago. His entire body of work screams Oscar. (Speaking of bodies, by the way, remember that part in Joker when we see him from behind, fixing his shoes? His physique is, frankly, terrifying. As he uses his muscles, he looks like some molting monster writhing inside a rib cage cocoon. During his SAG acceptance speech, he told Christian Bale how much he admires his commitment to performances, and I believe that since (pulling a Bale) Phoenix lost fifty-two pounds for this role (and possibly awakened an eating disorder).
Good thing, too! Did you hear his Golden Globes speech? If so, you must have been in the ballroom of the Beverly Hilton that night. They bleeped out seventy percent of what he said on the NBC broadcast.
Personally, I think the bleeping made the speech seem worse than it actually was. I read the transcript of that Golden Globes speech (profanity and all), and Phoenix’s actual words make him seem gracious towards his peers and passionate about environmentalism. Anyone simply reading the transcript would wonder in confusion, “What was so wrong with that speech?” But those of us who watched The Golden Globes cringed at his unusually paced delivery and puzzling body language (plus all the confusion of the bleeping).
The Globes speech definitely did Phoenix no favors. Some people immediately blamed drugs and alcohol. Then others passionately insisted, no just alcohol and anxiety. And still others said, No drugs, no alcohol, just social awkwardness, anxiety, and fear of public speaking. I wasn’t sitting at Phoenix’s table that night, so I have no idea if (or how much) he was drinking, but I do believe that he gave up drugs years ago, and I know the social anxiety thing is true. (I’m not his doctor, of course. What I mean is, it’s common knowledge.)
Theoretically, the quality of these speeches can affect Oscar chances, but Phoenix’s peers probably would not blame him for manifesting his widely known social anxiety. I remember well the 2007 Oscars when all awards season, Forest Whitaker stammered through some of the most ridiculously painfully awkward speeches ever. But everyone knew he had issues with public speaking, and everyone loved his performance as Idi Amin, and he won Best Actor, anyway.
Now on the other hand, Julie Christie made kind of a flippant joke about Alzheimer’s during an early acceptance speech and then lost the Oscar to Marion Cotillard. But that may have had more to do with the lovely Cotillard’s transformation into an ailing Édith Piaf than anything Christie said.
And of course, last year Christian Bale memorably thanked Satan when accepting the Best Actor in a Comedy Globe for playing Dick Cheney. (I get the joke, but I feel like that’s never a good choice.) Rami Malek probably would have won the Oscar no matter what, though, since Freddie Mercury elicits more positive feeling than Dick Cheney.
So I don’t think Phoenix’s Globes speech will hurt him, and if anything, his SAG speech will help him. (Such a great speech! Genuine. Specific. Gracious. Humble.)
Frankly, I don’t see how anything can hurt Phoenix’s chances at this point. I get the impression that his peers want him to win. His entire filmography screams “serious actor.” It’s about time he became an Oscar winner.
Maybe he’ll lose in the end because of the divisiveness of Joker. I keep wondering if that’s a bit played up, though. I know some people have reported lingering dark feelings after watching the film, but I was kind of depressed when I saw it, and watching it actually cheered me up.
I do think that Joker perhaps perpetrates a widespread, grating (to me), and potentially dangerous misconception that people who struggle with mental illness are likely to go on killing sprees like Arthur when, in fact, they are far more likely to write and act in movies about guys who go on killing sprees like Arthur. But Joker is not the only movie guilty of this. Movies constantly use mental illness as a plot device or thoughtlessly promote gross mischaracterizations of the mentally ill. Joker is just more in your face about it.
But Phoenix’s careful and nuanced portrayal of Arthur and his daily struggles is so compassionate and empathetic that the movie’s failings should not hurt his personal Oscar chances.
Jonathan Pryce
Age: 72
Film: The Two Popes
Role: Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, the dedicated, people-loving Archbishop of Buenas Aires who writes a letter to Pope Benedict XVI asking for permission to retire a bit early. When Benedict mysteriously summons him to Rome, Bergoglio assumes they will discuss his request for retirement, but Benedict has something else in mind. (If the man I’m describing doesn’t sound familiar to you–spoiler alert!!!–it’s Pope Francis!)
Nomination History:
This is Pryce’s first nomination.
Why He Should Win:
One thing I never understood about awards season last year was why given the widespread adulation for Glenn Close in The Wife, her equally impressive co-star Jonathan Pryce was dismissed without mention. (Christian Slater was pretty great, too! Sometimes I wonder if voters actually watched the movie.) I don’t mean to take anything away from Glenn Close, who never gives a bad performance, but her character couldn’t have been The Wife without “the husband.” Pryce gave quite a captivating performance himself and was rewarded with crickets.
I’m fond of railing about this injustice in my personal conversations and going on to joke, “And what about his riveting turn in G.I. Joe: Retaliation where he played both the president and the evil president who was really Zartan?” But all joking aside, Pryce has had a long and accomplished career, and it’s nice to see him getting some recognition from the Academy for a change. This feels like a nomination meant to acknowledge and reward his entire body of work.
That’s not to say that his performance as Francis in The Two Popes isn’t something special. That Netflix hit is proving wildly popular with awards bodies around the world. And Pryce is pretty spot on as the lovable Cardinal Bergoglio one half of the papal odd couple who fill the screen so charismatically in the Fernando Meirelles film. Screenwriter Anthony McCarten acknowledged that he leaned into a classic odd-couple dynamic when creating the bickering banter between the two pontiffs, and in terms of keeping the audience entertained, this really works.
To me, Pryce is at his best in his most unassuming moments, when he wanders through the gardens, chats with the gardener, moves casually among ordinary people. Without even getting into any theology, Pryce makes Francis so easy to like, but he still gets some moments of high drama and dazzling intensity like his extreme and evolving reaction to Benedict’s confession.
Why He Might Not Win:
To be brutally honest, Pryce seems least likely in the category to take home the Oscar. In the unlikely event of an upset, I could feasibly imagine Banderas, DiCaprio, or Driver snatching the win away from Phoenix, but (if you’ll pardon the obnoxious pun) I just don’t have faith that Pryce can pull it off.
One thing that hurts his chances is that he’s acting opposite a much more charismatic co-lead. Pryce is excellent as the extremely sympathetic Francis, but for me, Anthony Hopkins kind of steals the show with the almost eerie energy he brings to the far thornier Pope Benedict.
Also though Pryce has a name that is recognizable (to me, at least), and a long, distinguished career behind him, these other four men are movie stars. Pryce has always been a good actor, but he doesn’t have the mystique and star power of DiCaprio, Driver, and Phoenix, not even of Banderas. It would take an act of God for Pryce’s Pope Francis to walk away with the Best Actor Oscar, but, you know, there certainly have been acts of God before, so we’ll see what happens.