Riz Ahmed
Age: 38
Film: Sound of Metal
Role: Ruben, the drummer in a two-person punk band who suddenly begins losing his hearing. Ruben’s music is quite literally his life since his bandmate is also his trailer mate and (in his mind) his soul mate, so when his hearing loss rapidly deteriorates, he panics. Worrying that he’ll fall back into the grip of addiction, his girlfriend and his sponsor find a place for him in a community for deaf addicts where he can learn to process these massive life changes.
Nomination History:
This is Ahmed’s first nomination.
Why He Could Win:
I didn’t connect with Sound of Metal in the same way that some people did, but even I have nothing but praise for the power of Riz Ahmed’s lead performance. I saw myself in his portrayal of Ruben (pretty amazing since superficially we’re nothing alike). As I watched Ahmed’s emotive work, I identified with Ruben’s confusion, bewilderment, panic, rage, frustration, and desperation to make his life work again as it did before. One reason the film was such an onerous watch for me, in fact, was my growing frustration on Ruben’s behalf. He loses his hearing and because he also has a history of addiction, he’s treated like a criminal, or worse, a child. I understand that his physical display of rage at his powerlessness in the van must terrify his girlfriend, and I know that Joe and the others at the compound genuinely want to help him. But the fact is, Ruben has lost his hearing very suddenly for reasons he doesn’t yet entirely know. Why is it wrong for him to attempt to salvage his existing life? If I went deaf tomorrow, would I be expected to say good-bye to my husband and children, move into a group home, and abandon everything I did before? Permanently? Why is the only mature choice the choice to further upend his life? The intensity of Ahmed’s performance made me care about Ruben so much. I wanted to rail against the unfairness of the world and the unpredictability of life on his behalf.
In my review of Sound of Metal, I wrote of Ahmed, “His eyes channel such vulnerability and fear, yet his moments of intensity and rage seem so sincere as well.” I love the moment when he tears apart the van, breaking his belongings, terrified for good reason. The rage Ahmed displays in that scene is so raw and real, but instead of making us afraid of Ruben, this eruption of understandable emotion makes us feel for him. Please don’t misunderstand. Obviously I’m not saying, “If you ever face a setback in life, by all means have a violent, destructive freak out in your van while your girlfriend watches in terror.” But we certainly understand why he feels that way, and the externalization of his focused frustration lets the audience see exactly how Ruben feels inside.
This is a great role for winning an Oscar. Not only does Ahmed have the opportunity to display unbridled passion like this, but he also gets so many quiet moments of hollow-eyed fear. My heart broke for Ruben again and again as I watched him disappoint Joe, become disappointed himself, and cling so desperately to the misguided belief that his hearing and his relationship could be restored. Near the end of the film, there’s a party scene in Paris that is heart-breaking precisely because of how it invites us to imagine ourselves in Ruben’s shoes. I felt like I was there at the party with him, experiencing a similar level of soul-crushing disaster. At the party here, with his girlfriend later, talking to Joe for the final time—in all of these scenes, Ahmed quietly reveals a kind of torment that we’ve all experienced (though probably for different reasons). We understand exactly what Ruben is feeling. Ahmed shows it to us.
And let’s not forget he also plays the drums. Miles Teller did that in Whiplash, and apparently nobody cared. (I cared.) But I think Teller probably failed to get an Oscar nomination because he was overshadowed by his more impressive, scene-stealing co-star. Teller’s misfortunes aside, it can’t be easy to be a punk rock drummer. (Initially, I thought Ruben was a heavy-metal drummer as promotional material for the movie suggests, but a friend corrected me on this point. Not all loud music is metal.)
In another year, Ahmed could easily win for this multifaceted, intense performance. But not this year.
Why He Might Not Win:
I’ll be blunt. The only way Riz Ahmed will win this Oscar is if he somehow miraculously ties with Chadwick Boseman. That scenario seems unlikely for two reasons. 1.) There have been only a handful of ties in Oscar history 2.) In the unlikely event that a tie does occur, surely Anthony Hopkins would be the other winner, not Riz Ahmed.
I personally would rank Ahmed’s performance #3 in the category, which is higher praise than it might seem considering that #1 and #2 are so impressive and #4 and #5 are also great. All the nominees in this (always highly competitive category) deserve to be here.
I’m frustrated that Delroy Lindo isn’t here, too, because his lead performance in Spike Lee’s Da Five Bloods invigorated me this summer, and (after a couple of months spent not watching new releases) reminded me why I love movies so much. Mads Mikkelsen probably should have been in this line-up, as well, and I wouldn’t have been upset to see Tom Hanks. If pressed, I’d tell you that I personally would have included Lindo and Mikkelsen at the expense of Gary Oldman and Steven Yeun. But I’ll admit that I wouldn’t have been satisfied with that result either because then the deserving Oldman and Yeun would be left out. With just five slots open and countless movies that focus on a male lead, you can’t win.
I’m sure you’ve noticed by now that I’m just rambling about my personal rankings here, not providing any sort of methodical argument for why Ahmed won’t win. That’s because no argument is needed. Boseman is winning, and that means Ahmed isn’t. There’s nothing more to say.
Chadwick Boseman
Age: 43 at death (Deceased)
Film: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Role: Levee, the talented trumpeter in blues singer Ma Rainey’s backup band who has big dreams for the future, a future he wants to start now. While the other musicians rehearse Ma’s music, Levee is busy writing songs of his own and planning to form his own band with the backing of the music executive producing Ma’s record. Levee’s ambitions cause trouble enough, but he also can’t seem to keep his hands off Ma’s girl. Talented but tormented, Levee seems to find trouble waiting around every corner and through every door.
Nomination History:
This is Boseman’s first nomination.
Why He Could Win:
Forget the “could.” Boseman is winning for sure. If you don’t like that, better start steeling yourself now because on April 25, Chadwick Boseman will win Best Actor. I think most people will be thrilled to see him pick up his first Oscar whether or not they saw Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. We’ve all seen Black Panther. Boseman is widely known and beloved, and his untimely death still stings. Meanwhile, people who have seen Boseman play Levee know that he deserves the win based on the strength of his performance (and not just the intensity of fans’ grief for him).
I still remember the first time I saw Boseman on the big screen in 42. I could tell I was witnessing the rise of a huge new star. Watching him play Jackie Robinson made me want to be Jackie Robinson. That sounds crazy, I realize. But brutally honest impulses don’t always make sense expressed in words. I didn’t just think, “Jackie Robsinson was a hero,” or, “I wish I could have seen him play,” or, “Racism is wrong.” The stirring Boseman wakened in me went beyond all that. Caught up in the moment of watching his Jackie Robinson, I could not imagine anyone on Earth better to live as. He was heroic, wholesome, vital, so full of the right way to be alive. That’s one reason I was shaken so deeply by the news of Boseman’s death. It’s not the kind of sentiment ordinarily expressed (by people who wish to appear sane). But the feeling is, “Chadwick Boseman can’t be dead! He was so exceptionally good at being alive!”
In Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, he’s doing the best work of his career. It helps, too, that Levee is the type of part that wins you awards. He’s a multifaceted character and during the course of the film, he reveals himself to us more fully than he would have opportunity to if we met him on the street in real life. Boseman shows us Levee’s arrogance, his stubbornness, his ambitious streak, his dreams, his nightmares, his tender side, his seductive side, and the horrors of a violent past that still traumatizes him. Best of all, we see how Levee’s whole life feeds the music he is writing and the trumpet solos he plays. (And Boseman actually plays the trumpet!) Honestly, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should have gotten a Best Picture nomination, too. Who cares if it feels like a play? It shows us that when you steal a person’s music, you steal their life.
We see so many sides of Levee during this short film, and Boseman plays them all equally well. Not just any actor could do that. It takes more than versatility to play Levee. It takes an inner sense of timing and the ability to turn unexpectedly from one aspect of the character to another with stunning rapidity. The quick turns of this film are (intentionally) jarring to the audience. One moment, Levee is arrogantly cracking jokes and blowing off others’ jokes about him, and seconds later, he’s opening up about a horrific event that took place in his childhood, revealing himself as both more vulnerable and more dangerous than we would guess from his cocky grin and expensive yellow shoes. Not only does Boseman have to play these (radically different) aspects of Levee equally well, but he has to slip seamlessly from one to another. If I were playing the role, I would bungle the transition and ruin the moment.
Essentially, in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, an actor who consistently elevates his material and plays characters in popular films with such charisma that he generates Oscar buzz is actually starring in the type of film that the Oscars would typically nominate. Of course, Boseman shines here. He’s good enough to win Best Actor, and since his early death has robbed him of further opportunities to throw his hat into the ring, of course, he will win now.
Why He Might Not Win:
Would Boseman have won Best Actor this year if he were still alive? We’ll never know for sure, but I, personally, have my doubts. If Boseman were alive, everyone would be celebrating his first (much deserved) nomination and reasoning that he’s young enough to get more nominations (and eventually a win) in the future. Anthony Hopkins is so magnificent in The Father that I suspect Academy members might be tempted to vote for him instead, thinking, “This is his best work in years. It may even be his best performance ever. And he’s eighty-three, you know. He won’t be with us forever.”
After watching all the performances, I suspect that Hopkins would be the winner if Boseman were alive. But Boseman is not alive. The Academy has never given him an Oscar before and will never have another chance to reward him. Plus seen I’ve Boseman win in a couple of televised ceremonies now. His widow’s eloquent, heart-felt acceptance speeches are always a highlight of the evening, and everybody (from stars virtually at the party to viewers at home on the internet) always seems thrilled when Boseman’s name is called. (And to be clear, I’m not saying that Boseman wouldn’t win if he were alive. It’s a very strong performance. He still might pull off a win. I’m just saying that the race would be a lot closer and harder to call.)
Under other circumstances Hopkins would be a major threat. Ahmed’s performance, too, has some very vocal, very enthusiastic supporters. I firmly believe that even if he were still alive and healthy, Boseman would be very much in the mix for this award based solely on the strength of his work. As things stand now, though, not giving him the Oscar would seem cruel and thoughtless. The Academy has this one chance to honor Chadwick Boseman’s career and legacy. Let’s hope for their sake they don’t screw it up and open themselves up to the justified excoriation of the media.
If Boseman doesn’t win this Oscar, it will be the biggest shock (and disappointment) of the awards season. In that (beyond unlikely) event, I would almost pity the winner because everyone will be so disappointed about Boseman’s loss. I’m not going to waste any more mental energy worrying about that, though, because it will never happen. Chadwick Boseman will win Best Actor on Oscar night.
Anthony Hopkins
Age: 83
Film: The Father
Role: Anthony
Nomination History:
Won Best Actor Oscar in 1992 for The Silence of the Lambs (1991).
Previously nominated for Best Actor for Nixon (1995) and The Remains of the Day (1993).
Previously nominated for Best Supporting Actor for The Two Popes (2019) and Amistad (1997).
Why He Could Win:
I wasn’t that excited about this performance by Anthony Hopkins.
Then I saw it.
I wish so much that he could win. He deserves an Oscar for work like this. It’s easily Hopkins’s most compelling performance since his memorable, star-making turn in The Silence of the Lambs. (I say “star-making” because though Hopkins had been acting for decades at that point, playing Hannibal Lecter catapulted him to superstardom when he was fifty-three years old.)
The Father itself is a brilliant film. I hope it wins (at least) Best Production Design, and I’m thrilled that it’s nominated for Best Picture. I’ve watched it twice in quick succession now and found that both the film and the performance only improved on a second viewing.
Writer/director Florian Zeller had precisely one actor in mind when he adapted his French stage play Le Pere into an English-speaking movie. He named the protagonist Anthony because he wanted Anthony Hopkins to play him. And it’s easy to see why Zeller had such hopes. Hopkins has this rare gift of making what is horrible so attractive that the audience cannot look away. Look at Hannibal Lecter. Doesn’t it seem unlikely (on paper) that a psychiatrist who eats humans would attract and hold the audience’s attention in the way that Hopkins’s incarnation of him has? Something similar is going on in this film.
When presented with the upsetting but inevitable prospect of aging and declining, most people look away. It’s hard to attract a wide audience by promising the story of an elderly man with dementia whose cognitive decline seems to worsen with the passage of time. There’s nothing glamorous and spellbinding about the indignities and terrors of old age.
But Hopkins makes it glamorous and spellbinding. At some moments, such as the scene in which Anthony first meets his new carer Laura, Hopkins is simultaneously charming and sharp-toothed, downright scary, honestly, but also strangely irresistible. Here we get flourishes of the charisma that has always served him well as an actor.
At other times, however, Anthony is so vulnerable, so frightened, more like a helpless child than a difficult adult. And the emotions Hopkins displays seem so genuine. You forget he’s acting and simply think about the character. His performance is so strong because he doesn’t come across as an old man becoming more and more ill. He comes across as a man, a person, trapped in an increasingly terrifying, disorienting situation.
His final scene in the film reminds me of the end of Captain Phillips. Remember when Tom Hanks (who should have been Oscar-nominated) brilliantly breaks down after the heightened events of the crisis have ended? I was so impressed by Hanks in that scene because the breakdown feels completely natural. It’s impressive precisely because it does not seem contrived to impress. It seems real, human. Hopkins gets a similar moment at the end of this film. With the wrong actor in the role, I promise you, this last big scene would ruin the movie. It takes great skill and tremendous natural talent (and probably also years of experience) to play a scene like this properly. For this scene alone, Hopkins deserves to win the Oscar, but even without this scene, the rest of his performance is still strong enough to merit a Best Actor win.
Why He Might Not Win:
Tom Hanks didn’t win for Captain Phillips, and Anthony Hopkins isn’t going to win for The Father, either. The reason lies not in his performance or in anyone else’s. The reason is that Chadwick Boseman died. Now mind you, even alive, Boseman still could have beaten Hopkins this year. In my experience, all of the actors nominated in this highly competitive category usually deserve it, and even though Hopkins’s performance is outstanding, so is Boseman’s. I’m just saying that under these circumstances, there is no doubt of the outcome. Boseman will win.
I find myself wishing so much that they would tie. Think how satisfying that would be. The prospect is even more enticing when you recall that famous acting tie in 1969 between Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand. Hepburn won for playing Eleanor of Aquitaine in The Lion in Winter, and Hopkins also played a major role in that film as her son Richard. Barbra Streisand won for playing Fanny Brice, a late, real-life singer and entertainer (just like Ma Rainey). Who could resist a tie that comes with so much delicious trivia?
But it will never happen. In order for a tie to occur, enough people would have to choose not to vote for Chadwick Boseman. I do believe some people might say, “Well, Boseman is practically guaranteed a win, so I’ll just vote for the performance I like best since it won’t matter.” But, I mean, still…Basically all the people who didn’t vote for Boseman would have to vote for Hopkins and equal the number of people who did vote for Boseman. See? That’s so unlikely it’s not even worth mentioning.
Boseman will win, and Hopkins will live to try another year. (And he might well succeed. In his case, I don’t think being eighty-three lessens his chances of a future win. Remember, he was also nominated just last year for The Two Popes.)
Gary Oldman
Age: 63
Film: Mank
Role: Mank (aka Herman J. Mankiewicz) the often witty and sometimes fractious writer of Citizen Kane (and, incidentally, the older brother of Joe Mankiewicz who wrote and directed, among other things, All About Eve). When Mank accidentally strikes up a friendship with Marion Davis, he becomes a frequent guest of the prominent (and somewhat notorious) businessman and publisher William Randolph Hearst. For quite some time, the relationship is amicable and mutually beneficial, but when it turns rancorous, Mank’s career takes a nosedive until he writes his most celebrated screenplay, which is pretty obviously based on the life of a certain somebody already mentioned.
Nomination History:
Won the Best Actor Oscar in 2018 for Darkest Hour (2017).
Previously Nominated for Best Actor for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (2011).
Why He Could Win:
Frankly I’m surprised that Oldman even got nominated since I keep hearing what feels like everyone say, “Nobody actually likes Mank.” That always makes me vaguely sad. I want to say quietly, “I like Mank.” (If you’re a Simpsons fan, think of that episode about the film festival when Hans Moleman droopily sighs, “I was saying Boo-urns.”) I actually liked Mank. I actually liked it a lot. (And I actually liked Roma, too, for what it’s worth.)
If I personally were ranking these performances, Oldman and Steven Yeun would tie for #4. The two performances are equally strong, but each is the perfect example of what the other is not. So I’m pleased they’re both represented here.
In Mank, Oldman carries the movie as the always pleasurable to watch, irascible screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz. It’s an incredibly mannered, stagey performance, but in the best way. When we see Mank on screen, we know that one of his wheezing, sarcastic tirades can’t be far behind. This makes the movie a positive pleasure to watch. Perhaps this sounds too obvious, but Oldman is excellent at delivering his lines. We enjoy listening to him, and for this film, that’s crucial because we must crave Mank’s perspective in order for the movie to work. We also have to believe that he’s a seasoned and skilled screenwriter. So when the lines sound better coming out of his mouth, that really helps build the illusion of his eloquence and wit for the audience. Oldman makes Mank the exact sort of character we want from Old Hollywood, a star with a highly distinctive presence.
This is an unabashedly theatrical performance, so it succeeds best when Mank is at his most theatrical. Late in the movie, he crashes into a dinner party unpardonably late and irredeemably drunk. Then he starts telling an agonizingly long, intermittently funny, incomparably bitter, and, on the whole, very nasty story. The scene makes me think of “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner.” Nobody particularly wants to be listening to Mank at this moment, and yet there he is, talking and talking in his most grandstanding fashion nonetheless. Oldman plays the moment just right to sell us on the movie’s whole intriguing metadramatic concept of telling the story of the man who wrote Citizen Kane in the style of Citizen Kane. If you think of yourself as a writer, you’ll probably love Oldman’s work in this film.
Why He Might Not Win:
Gary Oldman is a wonderful actor. Like Meryl Streep, he’s a chameleon, a supremely versatile man of many hats (and faces and accents). He also displays amazing versatility when choosing projects, appearing in both popular blockbusters and highbrow Oscar bait, choosing roles in films of all genres, sometimes in lead, sometimes supporting. (In that way, he reminds me a bit of Helena Bonham Carter who could always show up in anything.)
For Oldman, this year, the nomination is the award. I don’t just mean that he won’t win (though he won’t because the Oscar belongs to Boseman. They can engrave his name now). I mean that several actors giving exceptional leading performances (most notably Delroy Lindo and Mads Mikkelsen) deserved nominations this year and didn’t get them. I maintain that Oldman deserved his nomination and did get it because voters realize that he is a high caliber actor who probably should have been nominated for an Oscar more times in his long career than he has been. (For Pete’s sake, Oldman wasn’t even nominated the first time until Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy in 2012! But he’s been doing deserving work for decades!)
Chadwick Boseman is going to win Best Actor this year, but I’m pleased that Gary Oldman has earned his third career nomination.
Steven Yeun
Age: 37
Film: Minari
Role: Jacob, a Korean American father who feels desperate pressure to prove his usefulness and provide for his family by growing nourishing food that people will buy on his small farm in 1980s Arkansas. As more and more goes wrong on the farm and at home, Jacob worries increasingly that he will be as useless as a male chick is to the plant where he works in his mind-numbing day job as a chicken sexer. Will his entire legacy go up in smoke, just like the male chickens who are nonchalantly discarded? Until Jacob can make farming full time a viable career option, he has to look at that smoke and ponder his potential uselessness every single day.
Nomination History:
This is Yeun’s first nomination.
Why He Could Win:
Minari is one of my favorite films this year. I’m thrilled that it’s also nominated for Best Picture, so I’ll get to gush about it more when I do that write up. If you ask me, just about every major actor in Minari is worthy of an Oscar nomination. (I would have been happy to see nominations for Alan S. Kim, Yeri Han, and maybe even Will Patton, too.)
As I said when I was discussing Mank, Yeun gives a type of performance that is the complete opposite of Oldman’s. He is neither theatrical, nor stagey. His work is extremely natural, quiet, and understated. In fact, many of Yeun’s most powerful moments come during his silences. He’s wonderfully expressive, emoting intensely with his various gazes, which is particularly crucial since most Americans who watch this film will not know how to understand Korean.
For me, Jacob’s whole character is unlocked by something he says to his son early in the film. When young David asks why black smoke is rising from the building where his parents spend all day sexing chicks, Jacob explains vaguely that the male chicks are discarded because they don’t taste good and aren’t useful. He tells David, “So you and I must always try to be useful.” (I’m quoting from memory, so I may not have the words exactly right.)
That idea—that he must be useful or he deserves to be discarded—seems to preoccupy Jacob and influence all his decisions. He becomes increasingly obsessed with farming. He wants to grow Korean vegetables. (Those taste good, just like the female chickens.) He feels he has to feed people. It’s more than a whim. It’s not just a hobby or even a get-rich-quick scheme. It’s practically a biological imperative. Jacob feels that if he fails to nourish people, he will be useless. All his potential will go up in smoke, and no one will care. Every day, he works at that place. When he takes a break, it’s to smoke. So he stands there staring at that Smoke of the Useless, as useless smoke pours out of him. It’s soul draining. No wonder he feels such urgency to find a meaningful career.
There’s a moment fairly late in the film when Jacob drops a tray of sorted chicks because of an injury. He’s told not to worry about picking them up. If they’re damaged, they’re discarded. The expressions on Yeun’s face in this scene are so moving.
Occasionally, too, Yeun gets dialogue to match his amazing facial intensity. His argument with his wife after David’s doctor’s appointment is heart-breaking.
Why He Might Not Win:
You know why he won’t win. Chadwick Boseman is winning. But for Yeun, this Oscar nomination is an extremely big deal. Highly acclaimed for his work in the film Burning, Yeun has been circling an Oscar nomination for the past couple of years.
Now the Academy has finally recognized him. Not only that, but he may be the first Asian American nominee for Best Actor. This bit of trivia is highly contested. I suggest googling the phrase “first Asian American nominee for Best Actor,” and taking a deep dive into what the internet has to say about that for yourself. There seems to be a general consensus (or at least a very loud point of view) that previous Asian American Best Actor nominees were either not Asian enough or not American enough to count.
At any rate, the Academy doesn’t usually nominate Asian American men for Best Actor. Surely we can all agree on that. In the past, Hollywood went wildly overboard casting white actors in yellowface to tell stories with Asian leads. When Asian actors did show up in major studio releases, they were often used as supporting characters who turned out to be comic relief. (That was terribly common even within my own lifetime.)
So Yeun’s nomination is historic and a great achievement in and of itself. He won’t win the Oscar this year, but he’s now one step closer to winning Best Actor in the future.