Sacha Baron Cohen
Age: 49
Film: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Role: Abbie Hoffman, the charismatic and controversial political activist/comedian/leader of the Youth International Party accused (with six or seven others) of conspiracy and crossing state lines to incite a riot near the Democratic National Convention in Chicago the summer of 1968.
Nomination History:
Also nominated this year for Best Adapted Screenplay for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Previously nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for Borat (2006).
Why He Should Win:
Baron Cohen is a conspicuous standout in Aaron Sorkin’s informative and exciting take on The Trial of the Chicago 7, and that’s saying something because the entire cast of seasoned actors is excellent. (I considered calling it an all-star cast, but it’s really more of an all-powerhouse cast. When you think of performers like Mark Rylance and Frank Langella, you don’t imagine star-struck throngs rushing them for an autograph. But boy can they act!)
I don’t even particularly like Baron Cohen, but even as a “hostile witness” I’ll acknowledge that he’s the best one in this movie. I loved his performance the first time I saw the film several months ago, and I loved it even more after watching the movie for a second time this past weekend. (Now to clarify—when I say I don’t like Baron Cohen, I mean that I find his satirical humor as Borat too mean spirited for my tastes. On the other hand, I have liked him in every role I’ve ever seen him play that he hasn’t written. He’s been great in the Madagascar series, Sweeny Todd, Hugo, Les Misérables. Also I’ve always liked Isla Fisher, and how can you not love her excitement for her husband as he won at The Golden Globes?) Baron Cohen’s turn as Abbie Hoffman is the best in his career, and I’d be thrilled to see him win the Oscar for it (maybe not as thrilled as Isla Fisher, but that’s understandable).
One thing that helps Baron Cohen shine is that his character speaks (most clearly) for the film’s heroes. We get the idea immediately that the Chicago 7 (+1) have been wronged, but Abbie Hoffman keeps telling us specifically (and engagingly) why and how they are being wronged. I went into the film knowing almost nothing about the Chicago 7. (I knew that there was a Chicago 7 and that they had a trial in the late 60s. I challenge anyone to know less.) My father, on the other hand, vividly remembered watching coverage of the trial every night on TV when he was a kid. Both of us learned so much more from the movie. He emerged with a changed perspective. I emerged with a perspective. Either way, the film educated us, enlightened us, made us curious, made us think. And Hoffman’s character is the most helpful one here. He makes it very easy to understand exactly what is going on. He spells out the complex political machinations driving the trial for us in an immediately comprehensible and highly entertaining way. With Abbie Hoffman around, the audience will not miss the point. (Abbie Hoffman and Jerry Rubin were actually the only characters I had heard of, and after watching the film, I understand why.) Of course the audience hones in on Hoffman! He is unwaveringly sympathetic, unusually informative, and highly entertaining.
It also helps Baron Cohen that I went in expecting Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne to give the film’s most powerful performance, and he simply doesn’t. (I’m not knocking Redmayne. Tom Hayden isn’t the most compelling character in this story, and even Redmayne’s big moments feel a bit anti-climactic. It’s just the way the movie worked out.) This makes Baron Cohen look even better by comparison. (The same thing happened to me in Da 5 Bloods. I watched for Chadwick Boseman, but it was Delroy Lindo who blew me away. His performance seemed even more powerful because I wasn’t expecting it. Where’s Lindo’s nomination for Best Actor? Ask the Academy. I don’t know.)
And it helps, too, that Baron Cohen nails Abbie Hoffman. (I assumed that this was the case because he doesn’t look or sound like Sacha Baron Cohen. I mean, he’s recognizable but clearly playing someone else who had a known look, accent, demeanor.) My dad remembers the historical Hoffman well and acknowledged that Baron Cohen captured him pretty perfectly. “He’s a lot taller than Abbie Hoffman, though,” Dad said. “Well, he can’t help that,” I replied.
Beyond this, Baron Cohen’s line delivery is fantastic. And writer/director Aaron Sorkin gives him some of the best lines. His last big confrontation with Redmayne’s Tom Hayden is gripping. (I assume that was written in such a compelling way by Sorkin.) His testimony late in the trial is simply magnificent. (I assume his lines here are recorded in the trial record.) How can we forget, “I’ve never been on trial for my thoughts before”?
Also working in Baron Cohen’s favor is the fact that he and Abbie Hoffman operate so similarly. It’s hard to miss the similarity. Hoffman wanted to raise awareness of an unjust system, so he staged events to draw cameras. Baron Cohen is clearly doing the same thing with the second Borat, creating an outrageous spectacle to draw people’s attention to the flaws in our society and government. Commemorating the fact that Baron Cohen is playing a guy who did just what he’s doing right now this year himself was clearly too irresistible for Oscar voters to pass up. Whether Baron Cohen wins or not, this Oscar nomination will always draw attention to the similarity between the two men.
Why He Might Not Win:
At the moment, it’s hard to believe that Daniel Kaluuya won’t handily win this Oscar. Judas and the Black Messiah is suddenly so popular that Kaluuya’s co-star LaKeith Stanfield got a nomination for Best Supporting Actor, too, even though he is very clearly the lead actor. (Initially, I guessed that they all must have campaigned as supporting actors—but nope! Stanfield was as surprised as everyone else by his nomination in this category. The only way the voters could have sent a clearer signal of their Judas love is by nominating even Dominique Fishback for Best Supporting Actor, too!)
At this point, I’ve seen Kaluuya win award after award, and I’ve also seen his performance. His magnetism as Fred Hampton makes an Oscar win seem almost undeniable. Almost. But it’s a long time until April 25th, and Kaluuya’s win is not undeniable in the same way that Chadwick Boseman’s win for Best Actor is. (Is it possible that Boseman does not win Best Actor this year? No. There’s no need to say more. Boseman is winning.) But voters could conceivably cool to Judas as the weeks go by. And even if they don’t, Kaluuya faces another potential pitfall. What if his co-star Stanfield siphons away some votes from Judas lovers? If he steals away enough votes, the Oscar could go to someone else. And if you ask me, Baron Cohen is the most likely choice for a win in this scenario.
For one thing, as I’ve said above, Baron Cohen’s performance is exceptional, and it’s in a movie that’s had staying power for several long months now, a movie that (despite all its nominations) might not get too many wins on Oscar night. Plus Baron Cohen is having an amazing year. He’s also nominated for writing Borat (and he won a Golden Globe for starring in it, and his co-star Maria Bakalova is nominated, too). He’s having quite a moment. If something goes wrong for Kaluuya, the shift could easily translate into a win for Sacha Baron Cohen. But remember that’s if something goes wrong for Kaluuya. At the moment, that seems like a pretty big if.
Looking at Baron Cohen’s performance only, there’s absolutely no reason why he shouldn’t win for his spot-on, scene-stealing portrayal of Abbie Hoffman. But when you also look at Daniel Kaluuya’s performance as Fred Hampton, there’s the reason.
Daniel Kaluuya
Age:32
Film: Judas and the Black Messiah
Role: Fred Hampton, charismatic leader of the Black Panther Party in Chicago who fed breakfast to school children, founded the Rainbow Coalition, and worked for social change in the 1960s and was shot in his home during an FBI raid thanks in part to the efforts of his bodyguard Bill O’Neal who was actually working with federal agents. Despite his accomplishments and the FBI’s fear of him, Hampton was just twenty-one years old when he died.
Nomination History:
Previously nominated for Best Actor for Get Out (2017).
Why He Should Win:
Kaluuya’s performance as Fred Hampton is iconic and unforgettable. I never knew anything about Hampton until this year. (I’ve heard his name before, but I knew nothing about his life and achievements.) What’s odd is that the Best Picture nominees this year include two separate Fred Hampton performances. Kelvin Harrison Jr. (so buzzy last year for his work in Waves and Luce) portrays the Panther leader in The Trial of the Chicago 7, a film I saw several months before Judas and the Black Messiah. Hampton is not the focus of that film, but I liked his performance a lot. In my review, I said, “I loved the performance and wanted the character to be in the movie more…Harris makes you want Hampton to be involved longer. When he’s gone, you miss him.” I also noted that Harrison’s early departure and relative lack of screentime would make getting a nomination hard for him. Harrison’s Hampton seems much younger than Kaluuya’s, and he gets much less screentime. Still, Hampton is sympathetic in The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Harrison’s performance primed me for Kaluuya’s. When I learned that Judas and the Black Messiah was about Fred Hampton, I was excited to see more of a character whom Harrison’s work had made me eager to get to know better.
Kaluuya’s Hampton certainly gets plenty of screentime, but it still doesn’t feel like enough. (That’s probably because the historical Fred Hampton’s life was too short.) Regardless of which actor is actually the lead (and it’s Stanfield, unmistakably, but I’ll talk about that later), Kaluuya’s is the performance you leave the film talking about. His Fred Hampton leaves an indelible impression. That’s the magical performance in the film, the one you tuck away into your soul and remember, unbidden, for years to come. Think of Anthony Hopkins in The Silence of the Lambs or Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland. Kaluuya’s Hampton is the driving force of the movie even when he’s not onscreen.
After seeing the film, I joked, “Kaluuya should get an Oscar just for the way he says, ‘Black Panther Party.’” I love his hypnotic cadence. When you watch him give a speech in a church about how he’s prepared to die for the people, it’s easy to see the appeal of both Kaluuya and of Hampton himself. What a spellbinding speaker! His vocal euphony is incomparable, but most powerful of all is our surety that he sincerely means what he is saying. Watching this scene, you know, “Kaluuya is giving a special performance, and Hampton was a special person.” He truly is willing to die for the people, and he is going to die for the people. The least we can do is remember his life of service and sacrifice.
That Hampton’s story has not been given more mainstream attention before now seems incredible when you see the evidence of his personal charisma and absolute, unwavering dedication to his cause. When we learn at the end of the film that Hampton was only twenty-one when he died, we reel in shock. At least I did. Kaluuya’s Hampton feels so much older. (Yes, the actor is thirty-two years old, but that’s not what I mean. Kaluuya seems much younger than thirty-two.) As played by Kaluuya, Fred Hampton comes across as an old soul, someone wise, someone great. And, of course, you also wonder why the FBI decided to turn a twenty-one year old into a “black Messiah” so they could assassinate him. It makes J. Edgar Hoover seem a little like Voldemort (in a comparison that’s probably unfair to Voldemort). When I watched the film, I couldn’t help but sympathize with Hampton and his cause, which means that he’s continuing his work from beyond the grave.
If Kaluuya does win and Chadwick Boseman wins Best Actor (which he will), then it will create a pop culture moment that might matter to people beyond the Oscars’ usual (dwindling) audience. Two stars of Black Panther will win Oscars, one of them for playing a Black Panther. I would imagine the Academy might feel relieved to see people talking about something vaguely race related and yet positive for a change. And people my kids’ age might well be thrilled to see honors going to actors they actually know.
Why He Might Not Win:
I believe Kaluuya will win. Of course, April 25th is still a long way away. It’s not even March 25th yet. Anything could happen. As I see it, Kaluuya’s biggest threat is his own co-star LaKeith Stanfield. It’s not that Stanfield will win. It’s that his nomination in the same category might draw votes away from Kaluuya, allowing someone else in this category to sneak in and take the Oscar. I would expect that person to be Sacha Baron Cohen, though Leslie Odom Jr. and Paul Raci certainly have a shot, too. Sound of Metal fans may consider this the most practical category in which to honor that film. (I mean, despite a stellar performance, Riz Ahmed doesn’t have much of a shot at Best Actor. Can you imagine anyone but Chadwick Boseman winning that one? I certainly can’t.) And what if voters think Best Original Song is not reward enough for One Night in Miami? Director Regina King didn’t even get nominated. Maybe voters will want to show the film more love to account for the snub.
Of course, you could argue that Kaluuya being placed in Supporting Actor is just as much category fraud as his co-star Stanfield’s odd appearance there. I mean, Daniel Kaluuya’s name comes first in the opening credits. He is clearly the star of the film. If anything, both Kaluuya and Stanfield belong in lead actor. This is especially clear since the film’s true supporting actors play such minor roles compared to these two protagonists.
But you can argue whatever you want all day long. Oscar categories have always been wildly arbitrary. They’re only there in the first place so that more stars can be honored each year. Daniel Kaluuya is nominated for Best Supporting Actor, and unless there’s some kind of weird surprise, he’s going to win his first Oscar, much deserved after his already noteworthy career.
Leslie Odom Jr.
Age: 39
Film: One Night in Miami
Role: Sam Cooke, iconic soul singer and music entrepreneur who has an intense friendship (and many highly-charged, imagined discussions) with fellow icons Jim Brown, Cassius Clay, and Malcolm X when they come together at a “party” in Malcolm’s hotel room after Clay’s title-winning fight one night in Miami on February 25, 1964. (I put party in quotation marks because all Malcolm provides them by way of celebration is some disappointing vanilla ice cream.)
Nomination History:
Also nominated this year for Best Original Song for “Speak Now.”
Why He Should Win:
I wish Regina King’s One Night in Miami had a better showing here. It deserves more recognition. I mean, yes, when you see it, you do feel kind of like you’re watching a friend’s high school history project, but why is that a bad thing? The movie is accessible and engaging, making it ideal to show to young people to make them curious about history. It’s also quite rewatchable thanks to the infectious energy all four stars bring to their roles. I would be happy to sit and watch it for a third time right now. (I understand that some people feel it doesn’t stray far enough from its roots as a stage play. But then why is Best Adapted Screenplay one of the few nominations it did get?)
At any rate, Leslie Odom Jr. is amazing as Sam Cooke. (His co-stars are quite good, too, but after a second watch, I did consider Odom the clear standout.) He is talented in general. I’ve enjoyed his performances in Murder on the Orient Express, Harriet, and especially Hamilton. What sets him apart from his co-stars here is probably his talent as a singer. Performing songs in the style of well-known and beloved entertainer almost always gets an actor Oscar attention. Not everybody who does this gets an Oscar nomination, but they almost always earn a place in the discussion. Odom’s stirring performance of “A Change is Gonna Come” helps the film end on a strong note.
Odom also gets some of the film’s most charged dramatic moments. His arguments with Malcolm X drive much of the action in the movie. In fact, if Sam and Malcolm didn’t argue, the whole night would be spent eating sad bricks of vanilla ice cream and taking photographs, not much of a movie.
Sam’s remark about wanting “the recipe” instead of “a piece of the pie” is probably the best line of the movie. Certainly he makes a provocative point, and Odom delivers the line perfectly. Since the movie focuses heavily on civil rights, we would expect Malcolm X to be the character to listen to here, but Sam repeatedly questions and challenges Malcolm, creating a more rewarding discussion. And when Malcolm plays a Bob Dylan song for Sam, Odom’s emotionally charged response showcases the power of his dramatic acting.
Why He Might Not Win:
As I’ve said repeatedly, I expect Daniel Kaluuya to win this Oscar, and I think he deserves the win. But Kaluuya’s co-star could draw away some of his support, and if that happens…Odom still won’t win. And here’s why. It’s so easy to reward Odom somewhere else instead. Just like past acting nominees Mary J. Blige and Lady Gaga, Odom is also nominated for Best Original Song. Furthermore, I expect him to win Best Original Song. And here’s why.
“Speak Now” is the best original song nominated. (I will congratulate the Academy on nominating five songs that are all actually pretty good from a field of dishearteningly lackluster choices.) As soon as I heard “Speak Now” start to play over the end credits of One Night in Miami, I said to my husband, “Hey, this song is good. Oh look! Leslie Odom Jr. wrote it. Maybe he’ll win Best Song.” This outcome just seems so likely to me. It’s a way to honor both Odom and One Night in Miami without using up a Best Supporting Actor Oscar that could go to someone else who didn’t also write a song. When someone is double-nominated like this, the Academy can have their cake and eat it, too.
Paul Raci
Age: 72
Film: Sound of Metal
Role: Joe, the deaf Vietnam vet and recovering alcoholic who leads a niche community where Riz Ahmed’s Ruben hopes to find healing and guidance as he struggles to accept his sudden hearing loss without damaging his hard fought and precarious sobriety.
Nomination History:
This is Raci’s first nomination.
Why He Should Win:
Though born to deaf parents, Paul Raci isn’t actually deaf himself, but he really is both a Vietnam vet and a recovering alcoholic. In his role as Joe, he’s sharing his real life with the audience. That kind of authenticity always deserves attention. For Raci, the message of this movie is deeply personal. As we watch him in the film, we can feel how much he wants to help the newly deaf Ruben. Raci wants to show Ruben the crucial value of acceptance of his situation. Searching for ways to regain his hearing will not bring him happiness. Embracing his deafness, learning to find comfort and self-acceptance in silence—those are the things that will ultimately bring him peace and true happiness.
As I first watched the movie, Joe’s predicament (and his treatment center) seemed so niche to me. A house for deaf addicts? I kept thinking, “It’s not enough that this poor guy is losing his hearing! He’s losing his hearing and he’s a musician and he’s deaf!” At first, like Ruben, I struggled with the idea that living in this house on this secluded compound was really best. (I kept thinking, “Okay, so this guy has lost his hearing. Does that make him a criminal? Why must he live in this house? Why is that his only path to happiness? He hasn’t started using drugs again. Why does he have to surrender his liberty and autonomy?”)
But the solution Joe offers Ruben really has nothing to do with surrender. It’s not that Ruben must stay in the house. It’s that he is deaf. What Joe is really offering him is autonomy. He’s providing Ruben a space to develop self-acceptance. The phrase perhaps sounds a bit cheesy because of overuse, but he’s offering him a path to inner peace.
Raci’s final conversation with Ruben makes his performance Oscar-worthy all by itself. I love his interaction with Riz Ahmed here. Joe’s disappointment is so palpable. He’s right about Ruben’s behavior. The pain on his face in this scene made his final moment with Ruben perhaps my favorite part in the entire film.
Why He Might Not Win:
I feel biased here because Sound of Metal didn’t resonate with me the way it did with some viewers. Is it an excellent and deserving film? Yes. But Oscar caliber films usually leave me feeling energized, and this one just made me vaguely sad. None of this is Raci’s fault, of course. And I’m not saying I didn’t like the film. It’s just that to me watching Sound of Metal felt like a chore, an ordeal. This may spring from the fact that I have tinnitus after a viral ear infection a few years ago, but when I don’t think about it, it sometimes goes away. Being forced to think about it for two hours, naturally, worsens the effect. That makes Sound of Metal a stressful watch for me. (I mean I sit there continuously thinking, Don’t think about it! It’s exhausting! Of course, just remembering A Star is Born makes my ears ring for days, and I still liked that one. I would probably like Sound of Metal a lot more if Lady Gaga played Olivia Cooke’s part.) (Well, no, actually, Olivia Cooke was a bright spot in the movie for me.) (Come to think of it, Lady Gaga should definitely play Joe. She loves to be the one imparting kindly wisdom. But then Paul Raci would be out of a part, and he does deserve this nomination, so that wouldn’t be fair.)
I’ve always liked Riz Ahmed whose lead performance is Oscar-worthy and in another year might be Oscar-winning, and I did recognize that Sound of Metal was a film of quality as I watched. But after the film, I listened to a friend’s thoughts on the movie and realized that she had connected to it in a much more profound (and useful) way than I had. In short, I feel like I don’t get it (not that I don’t understand Sound of Metal at the level of plot, but that it’s speaking to some people in a way that it just isn’t to me).
That said, I personally think Raci’s performance is the weakest in this category. Don’t get me wrong. His work is worthy of a nomination, and his personal narrative is deeply compelling. I just can’t imagine him getting more votes than Daniel Kaluuya, Sacha Baron Cohen, and Leslie Odom Jr. (LaKeith Stanfield is actually giving a lead performance which makes him hard to compare to the others. At first I thought Stanfield was the least likely to win the Oscar, but now I tell myself, Wait, there was enough enthusiasm to nominate him that a sufficient number of actors deliberately voted for him in the wrong category. It’s hard to know what to make of that.)
I’m not sure how much screentime Raci actually has, but it definitely feels like he has the least screentime of all the Best Actor nominees. Kaluuya is the star of his film, if not the lead. Stanfield is the lead, if not the star. Odom Jr. gets some of the best moments and all of the songs. Baron Cohen gets to speak to us from the witness stand near the end of the movie. Raci’s character enters mid-movie and leaves before the last act. He’s fantastic, but I just don’t think he leaves as strong an impression as the others, and I don’t think he’ll win. Then again, this is a place to honor Sound of Metal.
LaKeith Stanfield
Age: 29
Film: Judas and the Black Messiah
Role: Bill O’Neal, the frustrated car thief who avoids prison by agreeing to act as an FBI operative, infiltrating the Black Panther Party in Chicago and eventually making possible the assassination of local party leader Fred Hampton.
Nomination History:
This is Stanfield’s first nomination.
Why He Should Win:
I couldn’t believe LaKeith Stanfield got nominated for Best Supporting Actor. For one thing, he’s the lead actor. But if that didn’t bother the Academy, then far be it from me to object. He deserves the recognition for a fantastic performance, and I’m thrilled they found a category that could accommodate him. I never expected it, which frustrated me because I thought he deserved the acclaim. In my review of Judas and the Black Messiah, I wrote, “I have heard absolutely no one suggest that LaKeith Stanfield will get a Best Actor nomination, but I think that’s too bad because his turn as Judas (aka Bill O’Neal) is pretty amazing, too.” As I watched the movie, I kept complaining, “I wish the Academy would nominate LaKeith Stanfield, too!” And then they did! The way they squeezed him in there looks like a tactic typical of The Golden Globes, but no. The Actors branch voted, and these are the results.
Looking at the two characters, Hampton and O’Neal, I’d guess it’s comparatively more difficult to make O’Neal sympathetic. I mean, obviously, Hampton is a figure deserving of our sympathy. He did good work, and he was murdered for it. Once you get past the hurdle of convincing the audience that the Black Panther Party was not the nefarious organization they might have heard in the past, of course Hampton is sympathetic. (And that’s actually quite a hurdle. It’s not a matter of people wanting to be racist and hateful. It’s that so much false information has circulated about Hampton and the Panthers through the years because there was a deliberate push by the FBI to discredit and smear them. If you lived through the era, you probably encountered FBI propaganda without even realizing it. And those after-effects persist. What I had heard about the Black Panthers as a child in the 1980s was nothing good.) But as presented in this film, Hampton easily wins our sympathy. He’s a hero. In the metaphor of the title allusion, he’s the Black Messiah. O’Neal, on the other hand, is Judas. Nobody likes Judas.
Here’s the thing, though. As much as we aspire to virtue, Judas is sometimes much easier to relate to and identify with than Jesus. It’s much easier to succeed at being like Judas, even if you try to avoid it. To be betrayed is awful. Sometimes I think it’s worse to betray, especially if you feel the weight of your betrayal. (I mean, either way, you experience the trauma of the betrayal, but the person betrayed has a clear conscience.)
O’Neal in this movie is set upon from all sides. Early on, we get a wonderful visual metaphor for his whole predicament. At the end of the film’s first scene, we see O’Neal trying to steal a car while people have him surrounded. They’re at either window, on the windshield, even slashing down at him from the roof. Essentially, O’Neal spends the entire movie this way. He’s caught in a trap, feeling pressure from all sides, besieged by everyone. Hampton’s death is tragic, but the movie continually reminds us that there are two victims in this story. O’Neal betrays Hampton because he thinks it’s the only way to save himself. As it turns out, there is no way to save himself.
O’Neal is easy to root for because we identify with his desperation. Surely at one time or another, all of us have felt trapped. We don’t want to be like O’Neal, but perhaps we are or fear that we will be. At the very least, we pity his pain.
Stanfield does a marvelous job of letting us see Bill’s increasing terror and panic. By the time he realizes how much he does not want to harm Hampton (because he truly respects him), he’s already caught. He can’t reveal that he’s an informant. (Look what they do to informants! The scenes in which Stanfield discovers their fate are brilliantly played.) And everything Bill learns makes his situation worse and worse. Stanfield shows us Bill’s pain, the fear in his eyes. Watching, I felt so desperately for this character. I kept wishing he would leave the country, escape. I kept yelling, “Get out!” (Ironic since that’s just what Stanfield does to Kaluuya in Get Out.) Perhaps because we already know what happens to Jesus, we feel a greater urgency about the (slightly uncertain) fate of this Judas. (I mean, yes, if we’re going to push the metaphor to its limits, we know what happens to Judas, too, but it’s just a title. As we watch, we’re not sure how literally to take its implications.)
When I watched Kaluuya, I admired his performance. He makes Hampton into a spellbinding icon. But when I watched Stanfield, I felt for the agony of his character. The movie would not have the same urgency and intensity without Stanfield.
Why He Might Not Win:
How can he win Best Supporting Actor? He’s not even a Supporting Actor! Of course, category fraud doesn’t always matter. (Just ask Olivia Colman.) I’m not sure you can even call this category fraud because Stanfield didn’t campaign in this category. The Actors branch just voted him into it.
If anybody wins for Judas and the Black Messiah, it will be Stanfield’s co-star Daniel Kaluuya. (I could see more of an argument for placing both actors in lead than in supporting, but I’m happy for Stanfield, so I guess I should shut up about it.) Yes, Stanfield obviously had enough support to get nominated, but Kaluuya has so much momentum. He’s already been winning big, televised awards. I can envision a scenario in which people who love the movie end up hurting Kaluuya’s chances by voting for Stanfield. (While I don’t believe this will happen, it’s certainly possible.) But would enough of them vote for Stanfield to make him win the Oscar over Kaluuya? Surely not. Kaluuya has such passionate supporters. I just don’t think it’s in the cards.
In all likelihood previous nominee Daniel Kaluuya will be celebrating his first Oscar win this April 25th. Meanwhile, Stanfield should be celebrating his first nomination, a worthy, milestone accomplishment in and of itself.